Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The oil shipping market is experiencing tight supply and demand, with the global average TCE for oil tankers increasing by 83% year-on-year [1][4] - The report suggests that the tight supply-demand situation is expected to continue supporting freight rates, maintaining a "Positive" rating [4] Supply and Demand Situation - Supply side: Recent US sanctions on Iranian oil trade have tightened supply. As of September 6, 2025, the total capacity of sanctioned oil tankers reached 102.32 million deadweight tons, an increase of 84.08% compared to the beginning of 2025, accounting for 15.06% of global oil tanker capacity [5] - Demand side: China's crude oil import volume has shown a year-on-year increase, with July 2025 imports reaching 47 million tons, up 11.48% year-on-year. OPEC+ has announced a monthly production increase starting in October 2025 [5] Freight Rate Situation - Benefiting from the tight supply-demand situation, the global average TCE for oil tankers reached $34,900 per day, a year-on-year increase of 53.53%. The average TCE for crude oil tankers was $53,200 per day, up 82.89% year-on-year [4] - Specific routes, such as the BDTI-TD3C route (Persian Gulf to Far East), saw TCE rates of $53,800 per day, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 143.35% [4] Core Companies' Performance - In Q2 2025, the oil shipping business of COSCO Shipping Energy saw a 40.3% quarter-on-quarter increase in gross profit, while China Merchants Energy's net profit from tanker transportation increased by 65.5% compared to Q1 2025 [4] - The report recommends focusing on companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy (600026.SH), China Merchants Energy (601872.SH), and China Merchants Jinling (601975.SH) [4]
油运市场近况分析：供需紧俏加剧，全球原油油轮加权平均TCE同比高增83%
Xinda Securities·2025-09-08 08:02