消费者服务行业2025年中报业绩综述：旅游出行企稳见底，AI助力人服教育景气改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer services industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The consumer services industry achieved total revenue of 119.51 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.43%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11.5% to 6.482 billion yuan. The overall demand remained stable due to strong policy support for consumption since the second half of 2024, although the net profit decline has narrowed [3][13][14]. - The performance of sub-sectors varied, with the duty-free segment being a major drag on growth. The rise of new-generation consumers has shifted focus towards value-for-money and experience, leading to a search for differentiated strategies in the duty-free market. In contrast, the human resources service sector saw a nearly 50% increase in net profit, benefiting from new social security regulations and stable growth post-pandemic [3][14]. Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - The consumer services industry reported total revenue of 1195.10 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.43%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 64.82 billion yuan, down 11.5% year-on-year. The demand remained stable due to policy support, although the net profit decline has narrowed [3][13][14]. Key Sub-Sector Performance Scenic Areas - The scenic area sector achieved total revenue of 10.79 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.89%. The net profit was 1.121 billion yuan, up 2.35% year-on-year. The sector experienced slight growth despite adverse weather conditions [21][24]. Education - The education sector generated total revenue of 16.753 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.67%. However, net profit decreased by 4.70% to 880 million yuan. The sector showed a mixed performance, with some companies like Xueda Education and Dou Shen Education achieving significant growth [30][36]. Hotels - The hotel sector reported total revenue of 11.618 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 4.59% year-on-year, with net profit decreasing by 40.69% to 691 million yuan. The decline was attributed to increased competition and a high base effect from non-recurring gains in the previous year [38][40]. Catering - The catering sector achieved total revenue of 2.438 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 2.69% increase year-on-year, while net profit fell by 23.27% to 17 million yuan. The sector faced intensified competition, leading to a narrowing of profit declines [45][48]. Tourism Retail - The tourism retail sector's revenue was 28.151 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 9.96% year-on-year, with net profit declining by 20.81% to 2.6 billion yuan. The decline was primarily due to reduced sales in offshore duty-free shopping [53][57]. Human Resources Services - The human resources service sector reported total revenue of 42.010 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 10.70% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 49.76% to 1.324 billion yuan. The growth was driven by increased demand for flexible employment and successful restructuring efforts [59][66]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on stable growth areas within the industry, such as natural scenic areas like Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism (600576), Santai Cableway (002159), and Changbai Mountain (603099). It also highlights human resources service companies like Beijing Renli (600861) and AI-driven recruitment firms like Keri International (300662) as potential investment opportunities [67][68].