Guolian Minsheng Securities·2025-09-08 08:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [6] Core Views - The company's H1 2025 performance has declined year-on-year due to fluctuations in investment income, with a revenue of 9.41 billion yuan, down 5.6%, and a net profit of 2.42 billion yuan, down 11.8% [4][12] - The toll revenue remained stable, while revenue from supporting services and clean energy decreased [12] - The gross profit margin improved year-on-year, and financial expenses decreased by approximately 8% [12] - Investment expenditure increased by 7.6% year-on-year, with ongoing projects progressing steadily [13] - The company is expected to maintain a steady high dividend policy due to its significant advantages in toll road assets [14] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.42 billion yuan, down 11.8% [4][12] - Q2 2025 saw a revenue of 4.62 billion yuan, down 28.7%, and a net profit of 1.21 billion yuan, down 19.2% [4][12] - Toll revenue for H1 2025 was 4.60 billion yuan, an increase of 1.65% year-on-year, with average daily toll revenue on the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway increasing by 8.18% [12] Cost and Margin Analysis - The company's operating costs for H1 2025 were 6.29 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.80% year-on-year, leading to a gross profit margin of 33.17%, an increase of 3.14 percentage points [12] - Financial expenses were 438 million yuan, down 7.67% year-on-year, while investment income was 700 million yuan, down 33.24% [12] Investment and Projects - Investment expenditure in H1 2025 was approximately 4.43 billion yuan, an increase of 7.64% year-on-year [13] - Major ongoing projects include the Ningyang Yangtze River Bridge North Connection Project and the expansion of the Xiyi Expressway South Section [13] Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 23.29 billion yuan, 23.32 billion yuan, and 22.54 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.41%, 0.14%, and -3.38% respectively [14] - Expected net profits for the same period are 5.07 billion yuan, 5.17 billion yuan, and 5.35 billion yuan, with growth rates of 2.43%, 1.99%, and 3.54% respectively [14]