Changjiang Securities·2025-09-08 08:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a core operating profit growth against a backdrop of weak industry demand, demonstrating strong operational resilience [2][7] - With the stabilization of raw milk prices and potential improvement in industry supply-demand dynamics, price competition may ease, allowing leading dairy companies to further restore profitability [2][7] - The company is continuously advancing product innovation, channel refinement, and digital transformation, which will inject momentum for long-term stable development [2][7] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 41.567 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.046 billion yuan, down 16.4% year-on-year [4] - The decline in performance was primarily due to increased losses from joint ventures, with the company's share of losses from joint ventures reaching 585 million yuan, mainly from Modern Dairy [4][6] - Excluding this impact, the company's core business profitability remained robust, with operating profit recorded at 3.538 billion yuan, an increase of 13.4% year-on-year, and an operating profit margin improvement of 1.5 percentage points to 8.5% [4][6] Product Segment Performance - The liquid milk segment faced significant pressure, with revenue of 32.192 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 11.2% year-on-year, while fresh milk performed well with double-digit growth [5] - Ice cream revenue reached 3.879 billion yuan, up 15.0% year-on-year, driven by product innovation and channel expansion, with the Aisnow brand maintaining the top market share in Indonesia [5] - Cheese revenue was 2.374 billion yuan, up 12.3% year-on-year, with the Miaokelan brand holding over 38% market share [5] - Milk powder revenue was 1.676 billion yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year, with the Bella Mi brand focusing on high-end products and expanding into Southeast Asian markets [5] Cost Management and Profitability - The company's gross profit margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 41.7% in H1 2025, mainly due to declining raw milk prices and effective cost control measures [6] - The selling expense ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 27.9%, contributing to the improvement in operating profit margin [6] - The decline in net profit was primarily due to non-operating factors, including the significant losses from joint ventures and the absence of one-time gains from the sale of subsidiaries in the previous year [6]