OPEC增产压制油市，纯苯苯乙烯震荡承压

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market's operation center is weak this week, influenced by changes in the macro - crude oil supply - demand pattern. OPEC+ plans to increase production, which may lead to an increase in overall supply, affecting the cost support of pure benzene. The market is concerned about the supply pressure from increased imports in October and the impact of styrene inventory build - up, resulting in a generally weak trend for pure benzene prices [2]. - Styrene shows a "fall - stop - rebound" trend this week. Although the current valuation is in a reasonable range, the medium - term pressure remains. There is a supply - demand mismatch after maintenance in September - October, high inventory levels, and the cost of pure benzene is unstable, so the styrene market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - to - medium term, with limited rebound space [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - Prices: On September 5, the styrene main contract rose 1.75% to 7,107 yuan/ton with a basis of 18 (-32 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract rose 1.32% to 6,049 yuan/ton [2]. - Costs: On September 5, Brent crude oil closed at $63.5/barrel (-$0.5/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $67.0/barrel (-$0.6/barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,835 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton) [2]. - Inventory: Styrene inventory was 19.7 million tons (+1.8 million tons), a 9.8% increase; pure benzene port inventory was 14.9 million tons (+1.1 million tons), an 8.0% increase [2]. - Supply: Styrene will have plant maintenance in September, with expected supply reduction. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 37.6 million tons (+0.8 million tons), and the plant capacity utilization rate is 79.7% (+1.7%) [2]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S vary. EPS capacity utilization is 52.5% (-5.8%), ABS is 69.0% (-1.8%), and PS is 61.0% (+1.1%) [2]. (2) Views - Pure Benzene: Affected by OPEC+ production increase and the approaching end of the US traditional fuel consumption peak season, the oil market is under pressure. Although there are short - term supply disruptions, the overall supply expectation is increasing, which caps the naphtha price and affects the cost support of pure benzene. The market focuses on supply pressure from imports in October and styrene inventory build - up, making the pure benzene price trend weak [2]. - Styrene: After the price fell below 6,900 yuan/ton, it rebounded slightly due to short - covering and plant maintenance extension. However, the medium - term pressure remains due to supply - demand mismatch, high inventory, and unstable pure benzene cost, with limited rebound space and high inventory realization risk [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures rose 1.75% to 7,107 yuan/ton, while the spot price fell 0.19% to 7,486 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 64.00% to 18 yuan/ton [5]. - Pure benzene futures rose 1.32% to 6,049 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price rose 1.28% to 5,935 yuan/ton. International prices also showed varying degrees of increase [5]. - The pure benzene domestic - CFR spread increased by 3.85% to -364.1 yuan/ton, and the East China - Shandong spread increased by 83.33% to -15 yuan/ton [5]. - Brent crude oil fell 0.77% to $63.5/barrel, and WTI crude oil fell 0.90% to $67.0/barrel. The price of naphtha remained unchanged [5]. (2) Styrene & Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - Styrene production in China increased by 2.14% to 37.6 million tons, and pure benzene production increased by 0.31% to 45.3 million tons [6]. - Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 9.78% to 19.7 million tons, and domestic factory inventory increased by 1.67% to 21.5 million tons. Pure benzene port inventory nationwide increased by 7.97% to 14.9 million tons [6]. (3) Capacity Utilization - Among pure benzene downstream products, styrene capacity utilization increased from 78.1% to 79.7%, and caprolactam increased from 89.4% to 90.4%. Phenol decreased from 75.7% to 75.2%, and aniline increased from 67.6% to 68.0% [7]. - Among styrene downstream products, EPS capacity utilization decreased from 58.3% to 52.5%, ABS decreased from 70.8% to 69.0%, and PS increased from 59.9% to 61.0% [7]. 3. Industry News - The US imposed high tariffs on some Asian (especially South Korean) chemical products, leading to adjustments in the global petrochemical industry structure. South Korea cut ethylene cracking capacity, and some European factories closed due to high energy costs [8]. - In the first half of 2025, the overall loss of China's refining and chemical industry continued to worsen, with the total loss amount increasing by about 8.3% compared to the same period last year, and the loss in the refining and chemical sector exceeding 9 billion yuan [8]. - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core, coordinated by South China and Northeast China [8]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene spreads, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port and factory inventories, pure benzene port inventory, ABS and PS inventories, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [9][14][19][22][23][25][26][30][31][32]