乙二醇供应承压拖累盘面，短期延续震荡偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Ethylene glycol may continue its low - level oscillatory pattern in the short term. High inventory and weak demand limit the upside of prices, but cost support at low levels may prevent significant drops. Attention should be paid to the game between cost support and inventory reduction [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - Contract and Basis: On September 5, the ethylene glycol main - contract price slightly decreased by 2 yuan to 4355 yuan/ton, showing a narrow - range oscillation. The East China spot price rose to 4495 yuan/ton, expanding the basis to 95 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread dropped 52 yuan to - 7 yuan/ton [2]. - Position and Trading Volume: The main - contract position decreased by 9575 lots to 292,800 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 10.1% to 162,500 lots, indicating reduced market activity and increased capital wait - and - see sentiment [2]. - Supply Side: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate slightly decreased by 0.1% to 70.86%, mainly due to a 0.3% decline in coal - based unit operating rate, while oil - based operating rate remained at a high of 74.84%. Coal - based production was in continuous loss of 334 yuan/ton [2]. - Demand Side: The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.43%. Terminal demand was still sluggish, and polyester sales lacked continuous boost [2]. - Inventory Side: The East China main - port inventory rapidly accumulated to 485,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.7%. Zhangjiagang inventory soared 40.6% to 180,000 tons. Despite a 39.7% decrease in arrival volume to 101,700 tons, slow port shipments led to prominent inventory pressure [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Futures and Spot Prices: The main - contract price of ethylene glycol futures decreased by 0.05% to 4355 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 10.12%. The East China spot price increased by 0.45% to 4495 yuan/ton. The basis increased by 55.91% to 145 yuan/ton [5]. - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 3.23% to - 32 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 115.56% to - 7 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 378.57% to 39 yuan/ton [5]. - Profits: The coal - based production profit increased by 16.77% to - 278 yuan/ton, while data for other production methods were not available [5]. - Operating Rates: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 0.15% to 70.9%, the coal - based operating rate decreased by 0.41% to 65.4%, and the oil - based operating rate remained unchanged at 74.8%. The polyester factory load and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained unchanged [5]. - Inventory and Arrival Volume: The East China main - port inventory increased by 13.69% to 486,000 tons, Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 180,000 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% to 101,700 tons [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On September 5, the East China US - dollar market was firm in the morning and trended warmer in the afternoon, with no reported transactions. The Shaanxi ethylene glycol market price was stable at around 3970 yuan/ton. The South China market price was stable at around 4480 yuan/ton with weak demand. The US crude oil inventory increased, and the oil price continued to fall. The domestic operating rate slightly declined, and the basis strengthened under low - inventory support, with the East China price around 4473 yuan/ton [6]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol unit operating rate, downstream polyester unit operating rate, East China main - port ethylene glycol inventory statistics (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11].