从3500到3800，基金经理心态有何变化？

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Compared to the situation at 3500 points, fund managers with large - scale, good performance, and high subscription volume are more optimistic about China's economy in the second half of the year at 3800 points. At 3500 points, they focused on short - term real estate drag, while at 3800 points, they emphasized that the "anti - involution" policy alleviates deflation and enhances market endogenous resilience, thus weakening policy dependence [3]. - Regarding the judgment of future industrial development trends, the core focus is on technological innovation - driven and the rise of emerging industries, with AI, innovative drugs, and new energy regarded as the core growth engines. At 3500 points, they regarded anti - involution as a "booster" to accelerate industry clearance, while at 3800 points, they paid more attention to the specific policy effects such as directly improving PPI and corporate profits [3]. - In terms of market judgment, they are optimistic about both A - shares and Hong Kong stocks. At 3500 points, they focused more on short - term market repair and volatility response, while at 3800 points, they were more concerned about the economic bottom - out recovery and the slow - bull market in the second half of the year, and the improvement of international liquidity in Hong Kong stocks [3]. - In terms of market style, they expect the market to continue the structural market, with the growth style (such as AI, innovative drugs, and robots) as the core main line. After reaching 3800 points, it tends more towards large - cap growth and blue - chip companies. Small - cap stocks have high elasticity but need to be wary of valuation bubbles [3]. - In terms of investment direction, they highly focus on the three major directions of technology, innovative drugs, and high - end manufacturing. At 3500 points, they focused more on new energy and new - quality productivity, while at 3800 points, they strengthened the military industry and traditional manufacturing under anti - involution, highlighting the diffusion opportunities of AI hardware terminals and the digital economy industry chain, and paying more attention to the bottom - out recovery of industries with rigid demand [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. How to View China's Macroeconomy - Similarities: In both periods, it is believed that China's economy is stable and improving, with a steady GDP growth rate but prominent internal differentiation: the manufacturing/export chain is strong, while real estate drags down and consumer domestic demand is insufficient. The main risk is the US tariff conflict, and policies maintain a moderately loose monetary environment, with fiscal efforts to support confidence [6]. - Differences: At 3500 points, the recovery is mild and fragile, with low CPI/PPI exacerbating low inflation and real estate risks still existing; at 3800 points, it shows a "weak recovery after impact", with a good start in the first quarter and marginal improvement after the tariff impact in the second quarter, and consumer policies boosting the repair. At 3500 points, the focus is on short - term real estate drag; at 3800 points, the "anti - involution" policy is emphasized to alleviate low prices, and AI becomes a growth engine. At 3500 points, the expectation is a gradual recovery but with high risks; at 3800 points, it is more optimistic, predicting that a growth rate of about 5% in the second half of the year is achievable [6]. 2. Judgment on Future Policy Direction - Similarities: Both take stable growth as the core, expect the continuation of monetary easing, focus on supporting emerging industries (AI/innovative drugs), and use counter - cyclical adjustment to deal with external risks [9]. - Differences: At 3500 points, more emphasis is placed on short - term risk stabilization, with the focus on resisting external shocks and a cautious attitude towards consumer recovery; at 3800 points, "policy continuity and stability" is clearly stated, emphasizing market endogenous resilience to weaken policy dependence, deepening supply - side reform, and strengthening consumer structural opportunities [9]. 3. Logic of Future Industrial Allocation - Similarities: They are all optimistic about China's future industrial development, with the core focus on technological innovation - driven and the rise of emerging industries, regarding AI, innovative drugs, and new energy as the core growth engines. They recognize the key role of the anti - involution policy, believing that policies can improve corporate profits and the industry ecosystem. They agree that China's economy is shifting from investment - driven to innovation - driven, and the engineer dividend and capacity going global are long - term driving forces, and are confident in the leap of technology companies from "following" to "leading" [12]. - Differences: At 3500 points, it is more prominent that the inflection point of new energy is approaching and the allocation of finance and insurance; at 3800 points, the layout of cultivating future industries (such as biological manufacturing and embodied intelligence) is added, and semiconductor domestic substitution is strengthened. At 3500 points, they focus on anti - involution as a "booster" to accelerate industry clearance, while at 3800 points, they focus more on specific policy effects (such as the price law amendment draft directly improving PPI and corporate profits) [12]. 4. Views on the Future A - share Market - Similarities: They are all optimistic about the A - share market, believing that there are significant structural opportunities rather than a general upward trend, mainly based on the consensus of China's economic resilience, policy support (such as loose monetary and industrial policies), and controllable risks (such as the gradual easing of Sino - US tariff conflicts). Both periods emphasize focusing on high - growth sectors, especially technology, innovative drugs, high - end manufacturing, and consumption, expecting these sectors to benefit from industrial upgrading and global value chain reconstruction [15]. - Differences: At 3500 points, more focus is on short - term market repair and volatility response, emphasizing that the tariff shock led to an adjustment at the beginning of the second quarter, but after a rapid stabilization, the focus was on increasing positions in the military industry (reversal of difficulties), semiconductor equipment, and precious metals. At the same time, the decline in bond yields highlighted the attractiveness of equity assets. At 3800 points, more attention is paid to the economic bottom - out recovery and the slow - bull market in the second half of the year, with the risk prediction shifting to insufficient domestic demand and export pressure, and the investment strategy more inclined to dividend assets (such as bank stocks) and consumer valuation repair [15]. 5. Views on the Future Hong Kong Stock Market - Similarities: They are generally optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market, believing that its valuation is low, the company quality is high, and there are significant strategic investment opportunities. They emphasize that the Hong Kong stock market benefits from improved liquidity and policy support (such as a loose monetary environment and an active IPO market), and are optimistic about the technology sector (AI, intelligent driving, advanced processes, etc.) as the core growth engine, as well as innovative drugs, new consumption, and dividend sectors [18]. - Differences: At 3500 points, more focus is on short - term repair and rebound, such as the initial stage of a comprehensive rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, with innovative drugs and new consumption leading the rise. In risk response, it emphasizes preventing theme style adjustments and increasing the allocation of low - valuation assets such as non - ferrous metals. At 3800 points, more emphasis is placed on medium - and long - term opportunities, such as the "golden age just beginning" of the Hong Kong market, with the expectation of improved liquidity coming from long - term European and American funds. The strategy in the second half of the year shifts to holding large - scale platforms and blue - chip companies, and strengthening the AI industry chain (such as the digital economy main line) and disciplined fixed - amount investment to overcome the risks of weak consumption and low - level economic fluctuations [18]. 6. Judgment on the Style of the A - share Market in the Second Half of 2025 - Similarities: They all expect the market to continue the structural market, with the growth style (such as AI, innovative drugs, and robots) as the core main line. Small - cap stocks have an advantage due to their elasticity but need to be wary of valuation bubbles; the value sector (such as dividend assets and banks) serves as a defensive supplement. The industries focus on technology (AI computing power, semiconductors), innovative drugs, and the military industry. External factors such as the Fed's interest rate cuts and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations support the optimistic expectation, and loose liquidity drives the market to fluctuate upward [21]. - Differences: After the trade tariff shock in the second quarter at 3500 points, the style turns to a balanced and cautious one. The small - and medium - cap style continues, but the risk of valuation bubbles is prominent, and more attention is paid to low - valuation repair (such as finance and industrial non - ferrous metals) and the allocation value of Hong Kong stocks. The industrial logic of innovative drugs is strengthened, while the expectation of domestic demand is weakened. At 3800 points, more emphasis is placed on the rebound of the large - cap growth style and policy drive (such as the anti - involution action boosting the pro - cyclical sector). Although domestic consumer demand is weak, the wealth effect and policy stimulus are expected to improve [21]. 7. The Three Most Promising Investment Directions in the Future - Similarities: They all highly focus on the three major directions of technology, innovative drugs, and high - end manufacturing, reflecting the consensus on industrial trends. The technology sector (such as AI, semiconductors, and digitalization) is regarded as the global innovation main line, benefiting from technology commercialization and domestic substitution. The innovative drug direction is continuously favored due to policy optimization (such as the marginal improvement of centralized procurement) and global R & D breakthroughs (such as the going - global of ADC drugs). High - end manufacturing (including new energy and the military industry) becomes the core allocation to deal with economic uncertainty due to profit repair at the bottom of the cycle and the drive of anti - involution policies [24]. - Differences: At 3500 points, more emphasis is placed on new energy and new - quality productivity. Affected by the tariff war, the strategy emphasizes cost - effectiveness and the valuation depression of Hong Kong technology leaders. At 3800 points, the military industry and traditional manufacturing under anti - involution are strengthened. As trade friction disturbances ease, the diffusion opportunities of AI hardware terminals and the digital economy industry chain are highlighted in the second - half outlook, and more attention is paid to the bottom - out recovery of industries with rigid demand [24].