每周投资策略-20250908

Group 1: A-Share Market Focus - The report anticipates resilient trade data for August, with exports to non-US regions, particularly Africa and ASEAN, showing strong performance, effectively offsetting declines in exports to the US [11][13]. - The report predicts that the Producer Price Index (PPI) will show signs of recovery, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to decline due to the pig cycle misalignment [14][16]. - The upcoming Apple event and META developer conference are highlighted as key events that may influence market sentiment and investment opportunities in related sectors [9][24]. Group 2: European Market Focus - The report discusses the political turmoil in France, which poses risks to the European economy, particularly in defense spending and overall economic stability [35][41]. - It emphasizes the potential benefits for companies involved in defense spending, such as Rheinmetall and Siemens Energy, as European nations increase their defense budgets [42][45]. - The report notes that the European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates, reflecting a stable economic outlook despite political uncertainties [40][41]. Group 3: UK Market Focus - The report indicates that the UK government is under pressure to raise taxes in the upcoming autumn budget to address severe fiscal challenges, which may impact investor confidence [57]. - It highlights the potential for increased defense contracts, particularly with Norway planning to order British-made frigates, benefiting companies like Rolls-Royce [53][57]. - The report mentions that the UK economy showed stronger-than-expected growth in Q2, which may influence fiscal policy decisions moving forward [58].