每周经济观察海外周报第105期：欧元区经济指标全扫描：增长动能如何？-20250908

Economic Growth Overview - Eurozone's GDP growth in the first half of 2025 reached 1.5%, significantly higher than 0.9% in 2024, largely driven by Ireland's performance[3] - Excluding Ireland, Eurozone GDP growth was approximately 1%, slightly above 0.7% in 2024, but below the long-term average of 1.7%[17] - The recovery is primarily supported by resilient household consumption and improvements in inventory cycles[18] Q3 Economic Indicators - Eurozone's EuroCoin index averaged 0.42 in July-August, up from 0.26 in Q2, indicating potential GDP growth recovery in Q3[4] - The composite PMI rose from 50.2% in May to 51% in August, suggesting a positive trend in economic activity[4] - Q3 GDP is projected to grow by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, translating to a year-on-year growth of 1.2%[25] Future Economic Outlook - Leading indicators suggest a weak recovery trend, with financial conditions becoming increasingly favorable due to ongoing interest rate cuts by the ECB[31] - The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index indicates a potential return to a stable growth pattern in the next three quarters[31] Consumer and Investment Trends - Household consumption is expected to remain resilient, supported by stable disposable income and consumer confidence, although significant upward momentum is still awaited[42] - Residential investment is optimistic, with 54.3% of households expecting price increases in the next 12 months, up from 52.5% in June[50] - Non-residential investment shows short-term resilience, but firms remain cautious about future investments due to weak demand outlook[61] Export and Fiscal Challenges - Eurozone exports to China have been declining, while reliance on the U.S. market has increased, raising concerns about potential demand drop-offs[70] - Germany's fiscal expansion plans are viewed positively, with expectations of a deficit rate of 3.1% in 2025, while France faces political uncertainties affecting its fiscal outlook[75]