2025年8月进出口数据点评：8月出口走弱下的三大亮点

Group 1: Overall Data Review - China's exports in August 2025 (in USD) grew 4.4% year-on-year, lower than the Bloomberg survey's expected 5.5% and the previous value of 7.2%. The month-on-month growth was 0.1%, slightly below the historical seasonal level [1]. - Imports in August 2025 grew 1.3%, lower than the expected 3.4% and the previous value of 4.1%. The trade surplus in August was $102.33 billion, higher than July's $98.24 billion and the same period in previous years [3]. Group 2: Export Product Categories - Mechanical and electrical products maintained a relatively high growth rate of 7.6% year-on-year in August. Integrated circuits and ships performed exceptionally well, with export values increasing by 32.8% and 34.9% respectively, while mobile phone exports were poor, with a year-on-year growth rate of -18.9% [2]. - Labor-intensive product exports were weak. Exports of toys, shoes, clothing, and luggage all had negative year-on-year growth rates of -21.0%, -17.1%, -10.1%, and -14.9% respectively [2]. - High-tech product exports had an upward growth rate of 8.9% year-on-year, up 4.7 percentage points from July [2]. Group 3: Export Destinations - Exports to the US declined significantly. In August, exports to the US decreased by 33.1% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of double-digit negative growth. The proportion of exports to the US in total exports dropped to 9.8% (previous value: 11.1%) [3]. - Exports to ASEAN and the EU had steady growth rates. In August, exports to ASEAN increased by 22.5% year-on-year (previous value: 16.6%), and exports to the EU increased by 10.4% (previous value: 9.2%). The proportions of exports to ASEAN and the EU in China's total exports in August were 17.8% and 16.1% respectively, both up from July [3]. Group 4: Import Product Categories - The import growth rates of copper ore and its concentrates and integrated circuits were relatively high, at 13.9% and 8.4% year-on-year respectively [3]. - The import growth rates of coal and lignite, automobiles including chassis, and automobile parts were relatively low [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - China's export α is expected to remain stable, but β may weaken. Due to the weakening of global economic growth and demand, β is expected to continue to decline this year, which is the main reason for the weakening of China's export growth rate in the second half of the year. In the baseline scenario, the export growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 3.7% [4].