Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pressure on steel remains significant, and the valuation of steel is moderately low. For rebar, production slightly declined, inventory continued to rise for the sixth consecutive week with an increasing amplitude, and apparent demand dropped. However, as steel prices fell, the cost support has strengthened, and it is expected that the rebar futures will move in a narrow range in the short term. For hot - rolled coils, production slightly decreased, inventory continued to accumulate, and apparent demand significantly declined. But due to the high - level prosperity of the construction machinery industry, hot - rolled coil demand still shows strong resilience, and it is predicted that the hot - rolled coil futures will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term. For iron ore, the price first declined and then rose, and attention should be paid to the steel demand situation [152][153]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel 1. Price - This week, black - series commodities first declined and then rose. Iron ore showed strong performance, coke slightly declined, and steel fluctuated within a narrow range. Futures prices of rebar 2601, hot - rolled coil 2601, etc. had different degrees of changes, and spot prices also varied. International market hot - rolled coil prices fluctuated slightly, with some regions rising and some falling. Various steel price spreads such as basis, futures and spot spreads, and inter - month spreads also changed [6][7]. - The rebar 10 - 1 spread narrowed, and the 1 - 5 spread remained flat. The hot - rolled coil 10 - 1 spread widened, and the 1 - 5 spread narrowed. The screw - ore ratio and screw - coke ratio both narrowed [37][40][41]. 2. Supply - In July, the output of rebar decreased year - on - year, while the output of medium - thick wide - strip steel increased year - on - year. In mid - August, the daily average output of pig iron and crude steel of key steel enterprises increased month - on - month [44][46]. - The weekly output of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and five major steel products declined. The weekly output of rebar in the northern region decreased, while that in the southern and eastern regions slightly increased. The output of short - process and long - process rebar enterprises both declined [52][59][66]. - The blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and daily average pig iron output significantly decreased. The electric furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and steel mill scrap inventory also declined [68][74]. 3. Demand - The national building materials trading volume increased, the Hangzhou rebar delivery volume decreased, and the cement delivery volume decreased. The building materials trading volume in the southern region decreased, while that in the eastern and northern regions increased, and the cement mill operating rate increased [80][88]. - The apparent demand for rebar, hot - rolled coil, and five major steel products declined. The land transaction area in 100 large and medium - sized cities, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities, and passenger car sales all increased [94][101]. 4. Inventory - The total inventory of five major steel products increased by 328,200 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 85,000 tons. The total rebar inventory increased by 166,100 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 843,700 tons. The rebar inventory in Beijing, Hangzhou, and Shanghai increased, while that in Guangzhou slightly decreased [105][111][118]. - The total hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 88,800 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 706,400 tons. The hot - rolled coil inventory in Tianjin, Lecong, Shanghai, and Chengdu all increased [124][130]. 5. Profit - The disk profits of rebar 01 contract and hot - rolled coil 01 contract both narrowed. The gross profit of Jiangsu steel mills' rebar and the profit of East China electric furnace steel both decreased [133][137]. 6. Trading Data - This week, the positions, trading volumes, and settled funds of rebar and hot - rolled coil all increased [139]. 7. Options - For rebar options, historical volatility and related ratios such as the put - call ratio of positions and trading volumes were presented [142][147]. Iron Ore 1. Price - This week, the iron ore futures price first declined and then rose, with the main contract i2601 closing at 789.5 yuan/ton. Port spot prices varied, and the block - powder spread narrowed. The 1 - 5 spread widened [155][166][172]. - The black - series product ratios such as the screw - ore ratio and coke - ore ratio changed [177]. 2. Supply - Australian iron ore shipments decreased, while Brazilian shipments increased. The arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 1.33 million tons month - on - month [184]. 3. Demand - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 112,900 tons month - on - month to 2.2884 million tons, and the ore handling volume decreased by 9,000 tons month - on - month [72]. 4. Inventory - The total iron ore inventory at 45 ports increased by 620,000 tons month - on - month, the trading ore inventory decreased by 530,000 tons month - on - month, and the total imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 670,000 tons month - on - month, with an imported ore inventory - to - consumption ratio of 31.85 [154]. 5. Trading Data - The trading volume, positions, trading amount, and settled funds of iron ore futures changed, and the number of warehouse receipts was also presented [180].
钢矿策略周报-20250908
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-09-08 08:43