军工行业周报：“九三”阅兵后看军工-20250908

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The military industry is currently experiencing a significant cyclical upturn, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" entering a critical phase and the "15th Five-Year Plan" becoming clearer, indicating a potential "V" shaped recovery for the industry [14]. - The report highlights the importance of new domains and new qualities in military capabilities, emphasizing investment opportunities in unmanned equipment, military intelligence, satellite internet, and electronic countermeasures [14]. - The military sector has shown resilience and vitality, with a clear rotation among major segments such as low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, deep-sea technology, and military trade, which helps mitigate volatility risks associated with overheating in any single area [8][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Market Performance - The defense and military index experienced a decline of 10.25%, ranking last among 31 industries [20]. - The market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with July and August recording the highest transaction amounts in history, indicating a shift from short-term positioning to long-term investment in the military sector [8]. 2. Military Equipment and Capabilities - The recent military parade showcased a new structure of military branches and highlighted the comprehensive enhancement of military capabilities, including the debut of advanced weaponry such as the J-20S stealth fighter and various hypersonic missiles [2][28]. - The report notes that the showcased equipment reflects a high degree of information and intelligence, demonstrating the military's adaptation to technological advancements and evolving warfare [29]. 3. Financial Performance of Military Companies - In the first half of 2025, military listed companies reported total revenue of 440.55 billion, an increase of 8.43%, and a net profit of 21.42 billion, up by 5.11% [11]. - The aerospace sector is under pressure, but there are signs of recovery in certain upstream segments, driven by new demands in commercial aerospace and military intelligence [11][12]. 4. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the second half of 2025 will outperform the first half due to improved order demand and the release of significant contracts, which are expected to stimulate growth in the military sector [11][12]. - The military industry is expected to benefit from ongoing geopolitical tensions and the need for enhanced defense capabilities, which will drive long-term investment opportunities [10][14].