Guoxin Securities·2025-09-08 08:44Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [6][77]. Core Insights - The company reported a core net profit of 10 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, with the contribution from recurring business rising to 60%, an increase of 9 percentage points [10][1]. - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 94.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% [10][1]. - The gross margin improved to 24.0%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year, with the gross margin for development and sales business increasing by 3 percentage points to 15.6% [10][1]. - The company’s financial health remains robust, with a net interest-bearing debt ratio of 39% and an asset-liability ratio of 55% excluding advance receipts [64][1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 94.9 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year, and a core net profit of 10 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year [10][1]. - The core net profit margin was 10.5%, a decrease of 3 percentage points, primarily due to a 4 percentage point decline in the core net profit margin of the development and sales business [10][1]. Development and Sales Business - The revenue from the development and sales business was 74.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%, while the contracted sales amount was 110.3 billion yuan, down 12% [25][2]. - The company ranked third in industry sales, maintaining a leading position in 15 cities [25][2]. - The land acquisition amount was 44.7 billion yuan, a 75% increase year-on-year, with a land reserve area of 48.95 million square meters as of the end of the first half of 2025 [25][2]. Operational Performance of Shopping Centers - The operating income from the property management business was 12.1 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year, with rental income from shopping centers reaching 10.4 billion yuan, up 10% [50][3]. - The overall occupancy rate of shopping centers was 97.3%, remaining stable year-on-year, with a retail sales figure of 110.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% increase [50][3]. Financial Health - The company’s weighted average financing cost was 2.79%, a decrease of 32 basis points compared to the end of 2024 [64][1]. - It is expected that the recurring business income will cover twice the dividend and interest expenses for the full year of 2025, indicating low debt repayment pressure [64][1]. Profit Forecast - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, expecting the company's net profit attributable to shareholders to be 24.5 billion yuan and 24.1 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 3.43 yuan and 3.39 yuan [77][1].