利率债周报：上周债市有所修复，收益率曲线趋于平坦化-20250908

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market recovered, and the yield curve flattened. The bond market was boosted by the stock market decline and loose liquidity at the beginning of the week but was suppressed later by the stock market rebound and commodity trading. The long - term bond yield decreased overall, and the short - term rate was weaker than the long - term, leading to a flatter yield curve [3]. - This week, the bond market will likely continue to fluctuate weakly. The liquidity is expected to remain balanced and slightly loose. The economic data in August is unlikely to exceed expectations, which supports the bond market but won't strongly boost market sentiment. Policies to stabilize the capital market and the real estate market will suppress the bond market. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.80% [3]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - Secondary Market: The bond market recovered last week, and the long - term bond yield decreased overall. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures contract rose 0.14% in the week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1.19bp compared with the previous Friday, while the 1 - year yield increased by 2.61bp, narrowing the term spread. The bond market's performance varied daily due to stock market trends [4]. - Primary Market: 39 interest - rate bonds were issued last week, 62 fewer than the previous week, with a total issuance of 563 billion yuan, 60.4 billion more than the previous week, and a net financing of 317 billion yuan, 330.6 billion more. Treasury bond issuance increased, while policy - bank bond and local government bond issuance decreased. The net financing of Treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased, while that of local government bonds decreased. The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable [14]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events The central bank announced a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tender, multi - price - winning买断式逆回购 operation on September 5 to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system. This was due to the high - peak issuance of government bonds in September, a large amount of maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit, and the impact of the stock market on capital flow. It is expected that the central bank will continue to increase the volume of 3 - month买断式逆回购 operations in September [16]. 3.3 Real Economy Observation - Production: Most high - frequency production data declined last week, including the semi - steel tire operating rate, blast furnace operating rate, petroleum asphalt plant operating rate, and daily hot - metal output [17]. - Demand: The BDI index dropped slightly, the CCFI index continued to decline, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly [17]. - Prices: The pork price fluctuated and decreased slightly, most commodity prices rose (such as steel and copper), and the crude oil price declined slightly [17]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's open - market operations resulted in a net capital withdrawal of 1.2047 trillion yuan last week. Although there were continuous net withdrawals, the central bank's large - scale买断式逆回购 operation showed its intention to maintain liquidity [27]. - The R007 and DR007 rates both decreased, the inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock banks continued to decline, the 3 - month national - share direct - discount rate continued to rise, and the volume of pledged repurchase transactions increased significantly. The inter - bank market leverage ratio fluctuated and increased [30][33][36].