OPEC+决定继续增产，油价承压

Group 1: Report Core View - The central price of crude oil may continue to decline in a volatile manner, but geopolitical pulse risks need to be guarded against. The core contradiction lies in the loosening of internal discipline within OPEC+ and the passive production cuts caused by damaged refining capacity in Russia. The current flattening of the futures curve indicates increasing supply pressure in the near - term, and Saudi Arabia's production increase expectations may break the low - inventory support logic. Attention should be paid to the intensity of geopolitical events' impact on actual supply [6]. Group 2: Daily Market Summary Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On September 5, 2025, the SC main contract closed at 481.0 yuan/barrel, down 0.5% from the previous day's settlement price, with an intraday amplitude exceeding 2%. WTI and Brent fell 2.0% and 1.9% to $63.34 and $66.88 per barrel respectively. The spreads of SC against Brent and WTI strengthened to $0.49/barrel (+$1.87) and $4.03/barrel (+$0.86) respectively, indicating the relative strength of crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region. The Brent - WTI spread narrowed by $0.08 to $3.54, and the cross - regional arbitrage window across the Atlantic marginally contracted [2]. Supply - side of the Industrial Chain - Iraq is continuously pushing for OPEC+ to renegotiate production quotas (claiming on September 6 that September exports will reach 3.45 million barrels per day, about 20% above the quota), and Saudi Arabia plans to compete for market share, causing oil prices to decline under pressure. However, the attack on Russia's Irskiy refinery and Ukraine's continuous attacks on Russian energy facilities may accelerate the decline in Russian refined oil exports and indirectly support crude oil processing demand. Oman's new storage facility of tens of millions of barrels may enhance the flexibility of spot trade in the Middle East [3]. Demand - side of the Industrial Chain - Spain's crude oil imports in July increased by 17.8% year - on - year. Indian refineries avoided high - priced US oil and switched to purchasing West African/Middle Eastern crude oil, reflecting the structural demand differentiation in the spot market. Hungary was forced to purchase Russian oil, and Slovakia maintained pipeline transportation, indicating the resilience of the EU's dependence on Russian oil [4]. Inventory - side of the Industrial Chain - For the week ending August 29, US EIA crude oil inventories increased by 2.415 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 2.031 million barrels and a previous decrease of 2.392 million barrels. EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in Oklahoma increased by 1.59 million barrels, compared with a previous decrease of 0.838 million barrels. EIA gasoline inventories decreased by 3.795 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.068 million barrels and a previous decrease of 1.236 million barrels. EIA refined oil inventories increased by 1.681 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 0.598 million barrels and a previous decrease of 1.786 million barrels [5]. Group 3: Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - On September 5, 2025, the SC futures price was 482.00 yuan/barrel, up 0.21% from the previous day. WTI was $61.97/barrel, down 2.16%, and Brent was $65.67/barrel, down 1.81%. Among spot prices, the OPEC basket price remained unchanged at $71.32/barrel, while Brent dropped 3.10% to $65.40/barrel, Oman dropped 0.57% to $69.30/barrel, etc. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI also showed certain changes. In terms of inventory, US commercial crude oil inventories, Cushing inventories, strategic reserve inventories, and API inventories all increased to varying degrees. The US refinery weekly operating rate decreased slightly, and the crude oil processing volume also decreased slightly [8]. Fuel Oil - On September 5, 2025, the FU futures price was 2,759.00 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. LU was 3,392.00 yuan/ton, down 0.59%. NYMEX fuel oil dropped 1.61% to 229.04 cents/gallon. Spot prices of various fuel oils in different regions also showed different degrees of decline. There were also changes in paper - cargo prices, port delivery prices, and spreads [9]. Group 4: Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Supply - On September 7, the Slovak economy minister stated that the night attack on the "Friendship" oil pipeline did not affect supply, and oil continued to be transported to Slovakia. The OPEC representative of Iraq said that OPEC+ might agree to increase daily oil production by 130,000 - 140,000 barrels on Sunday. On September 6, Iraq's deputy oil minister said that Iraq was in negotiations with ExxonMobil on major energy projects. Iraq's daily oil exports in August were 3.38 million barrels, and are expected to reach 3.4 - 3.45 million barrels in September. On September 5, Saudi Arabia hoped that OPEC+ would consider restoring more oil production by the end of next year to regain market share [10][11][12]. Demand - India will continue to buy Russian oil. India's largest refiner, Indian Oil Corporation, avoided buying US crude oil in the latest tender and instead purchased 2 million barrels of West African crude oil and 1 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude oil [13]. Inventory - Iraq's SOMO and Oman's OQ company signed two memorandums of understanding regarding oil storage and Iraqi oil trade. One of the memorandums involves developing an integrated crude oil storage project in Oman's Ras Markaz with an initial capacity of 10 million barrels [14]. Market Information - Hungary's foreign minister said that Hungary had no choice but to buy Russian oil [15]. Group 5: Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides 21 data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent front - month contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US weekly crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, and other data [16][18][20].