甲醇周报：基本面改善有限，甲醇或延续震荡-20250908

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The improvement of methanol fundamentals is limited, and methanol futures prices may fluctuate within a range. The spot price of methanol may perform strongly under the boost of the "Golden September" demand season, but overall, it is likely to continue to oscillate in the short term. A sell wide - straddle strategy can be considered [8][9][31]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Futures: Under the pressure of rising port methanol inventory, the fundamentals are weak. However, boosted by positive macro - expectations, the methanol weighted price closed at 2,404 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 2.39% increase from the previous week [6][13]. - Spot: Port methanol continued to accumulate inventory last week, with limited upward price movement. The average price in the port market continued to decline. In the inland market, supply pressure increased, and prices weakened. The price range in Jiangsu was 2,200 - 2,270 yuan/ton, in Guangdong 2,220 - 2,260 yuan/ton, in Ordos North Line 2,042 - 2,057 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying was 2,295 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: From August 29 to September 4, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,962,815 tons, an increase of 43,690 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 86.63%, a 2.07% increase. More units were restored than shut down [15]. - Downstream Demand: As of September 4, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream products showed different trends. The overall MTO capacity utilization rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased slightly to 64.38%, while the capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chloride, and formaldehyde decreased [17][19]. - Inventory: As of September 3, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 341,100 tons, a 2.31% increase; the order backlog was 241,300 tons, an 11.20% increase. The port sample inventory was 1,427,700 tons, a 9.88% increase [21][23]. - Profit: Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples showed mixed trends. The theoretical profit of coal - to - methanol in production areas slightly narrowed, while that in consumption areas slightly expanded. The theoretical profits of coke oven gas - to - methanol and natural gas - to - methanol improved, but natural gas - to - methanol remained in a loss state [26]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, more methanol units are expected to be shut down for maintenance than restarted. The estimated production is about 1.961 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 86.42%, a decrease from last week [28]. - Downstream Demand: The overall demand is expected to show moderate growth. The capacity utilization rates of some industries such as formaldehyde and MTBE are expected to increase, while those of olefins, acetic acid, chloride, and dimethyl ether may decline [8]. - Inventory: The inventory of sample production enterprises is expected to decrease slightly to 325,700 tons. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate as the arrival of foreign vessels remains stable [30]. - Overall: The improvement of methanol fundamentals is limited, and it is likely to continue to oscillate in the short term [31].