餐饮链板块跟踪报告：下半年餐饮需求有望修复，期待供应链后续表现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [5][38]. Core Insights - The restaurant sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, particularly in July, following a period of policy-induced challenges affecting high-end dining. The overall trend suggests a gradual improvement in consumer sentiment and spending [1][4]. - The report highlights a significant shift towards lower-priced dining options, with establishments priced under 50 yuan continuing to expand, while high-end dining is facing contraction due to recent policy restrictions [3][25]. Summary by Sections Restaurant Demand and Performance - In Q2 2025, restaurant product popularity saw a slight decline compared to Q1 but improved in July. The retail sales data indicates a year-on-year increase in restaurant revenue, with May showing a growth of +5.9% and June a modest +0.9% [1][14]. - The number of restaurant outlets remained stable in Q2, with a slight increase in July. The opening rate for chain restaurants was notably higher at 3.36% compared to 0.31% for standalone outlets [2][16]. Consumer Trends - The distribution of restaurant outlets by price category shows that 70.1% are priced under 50 yuan, reflecting a strong preference for affordable dining options. The number of outlets in the high-end category (over 100 yuan) has decreased [3][25]. - The report indicates that the demand for mid-range dining remains stable, but high-end dining is expected to recover gradually as policy restrictions ease [3][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within the sector: 1. Lihigh Food: Expected to maintain sales growth driven by major supermarket clients and improved operational efficiency [4][36]. 2. Anjii Food: Emphasizes innovation and customization for supermarket products [4][36]. 3. Qianwei Central Kitchen: Stable client base with a focus on channel transformation and new retail opportunities [4][36]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies are as follows: - Lihigh Food: EPS expected to grow from 1.58 yuan in 2024 to 2.08 yuan in 2025 [5][38]. - Qianwei Central Kitchen: EPS projected to increase from 0.84 yuan in 2024 to 1.02 yuan in 2025 [5][38]. - Anjii Food: EPS anticipated to decrease slightly from 5.06 yuan in 2024 to 4.17 yuan in 2025 [5][38].