白酒板块2025年中报总结：加速出清，有望见底

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage sector, specifically for the liquor segment [5]. Core Insights - The liquor sector experienced a negative revenue growth of 4.93% year-on-year in Q2 2025, marking a shift from positive growth in Q1 2025 [13][14]. - The high-end liquor segment showed resilience despite a slowdown, with brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye maintaining stable revenues, while the national mid-range liquor and local brands faced significant revenue declines [14][39]. - The report suggests that the industry is undergoing a necessary adjustment phase, with expectations for gradual recovery in the latter half of 2025 due to lower comparative bases and potential easing of policy controls [39]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth and Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the liquor sector's total revenue declined by 4.93% year-on-year, influenced by policy changes and supply-demand imbalances leading to increased channel inventory pressures [13][14]. - Cash collection from sales also decreased by 3.18% year-on-year, reflecting weakened demand and low confidence among distributors [18][20]. - The overall operating cash flow for the sector dropped by approximately 53% year-on-year, indicating significant financial strain [18][20]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The comprehensive gross margin for the liquor sector stood at 80.46%, showing slight fluctuations due to changes in product mix and increased promotional expenses [27][34]. - The net profit margin decreased by 1.01 percentage points year-on-year, with the sector's net profit declining by 7.5%, indicating pressure on profitability from fixed costs and shifting product structures [34][39]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong operational quality and less channel pressure, such as Shanxi Fenjiu, and suggests that companies that have undergone earlier adjustments may see quicker recovery [39]. - Specific companies highlighted for potential growth include Luzhou Laojiao, Shede Liquor, and Zhenjiu Lidu, along with local brands like Yingjia Gongjiu [39].