豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20250908

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on soybean meal and soybean oil futures from September 8 - 12, 2025 [1][2] 1. Soybean Meal Futures 1.1 Investment Rating - Not provided 1.2 Core View - The soybean meal futures price is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation. The current high domestic soybean arrivals, active oil - mill operations, and high downstream feed - enterprise inventories, along with rising import costs and expected supply shortages in the fourth quarter, jointly influence the price trend [7] 1.3 Section Summaries 1.3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase [7] - Trend judgment logic: In the 35th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.4254 million tons, with an operating rate of 68.18%. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0788 million tons, a 2.55 - thousand - ton increase (2.42% growth) from the previous week. High domestic soybean arrivals, active oil - mill operations, and high downstream feed - enterprise inventories lead to continuous inventory accumulation. Rising Brazilian premiums and uncertain Sino - US trade policies increase import costs, and the expected supply shortage in the fourth quarter provides potential support [7] - Mid - line strategy suggestion: Monitor the progress of Sino - US trade [7] 1.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was sideways, with a relatively bullish capital situation. The M2601 contract may continue to oscillate in the short term, with an expected operating range of 2980 - 3200 [10] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is sideways, with a slightly bullish capital situation. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate and adjust between 2980 - 3200 [11] 1.3.3 Relevant Data - The data includes weekly soybean meal production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio, sourced from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [19][21][25] 2. Soybean Oil Futures 2.1 Investment Rating - Not provided 2.2 Core View - The soybean oil futures price is expected to continue its oscillation. High domestic soybean arrivals, high oil - mill operating rates, high production and inventory, and general downstream demand, along with support from export improvement, US biodiesel policies, restocking demand, and expected supply shortages in the fourth quarter, jointly affect the price trend [30] 2.3 Section Summaries 2.3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract is in an oscillation phase [30] - Trend judgment logic: In the 35th week, the actual soybean oil production of 125 oil mills was 460,800 tons, a 29,500 - ton increase from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2388 million tons, a 52,800 - ton increase from the previous week. High domestic soybean arrivals, high oil - mill operating rates, and general downstream demand, along with support from export improvement, US biodiesel policies, restocking demand, and expected supply shortages in the fourth quarter [30] - Mid - line strategy suggestion: Monitor import costs, the trends of competing oils, and macro - policy dynamics [30] 2.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was in a downward channel, with a strongly bullish capital situation. The Y2601 contract may maintain an oscillatory consolidation pattern in the short term [33] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is sideways, with a relatively bullish capital situation. The Y2601 contract may maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term [33] 2.3.3 Relevant Data - The data includes weekly soybean oil production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, weekly soybean arrivals, weekly soybean inventory, weekly soybean crushing volume, weekly soybean operating rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premiums, sourced from Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [44][46][49]