Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current main trading logic of industrial silicon is related to the 12 - contract after the delivery rule modification. The 11 - 12 month spread is around 2200 when the price is below 11500. It is recommended to wait and see when the month spread is between 2000 - 2200. For the 06 contract, a light - short position can be tried at 11700 - 11800, and an over - the - counter option with a 300 - point fuse cumulative put can be considered at 11700 for the 06 contract. The variables include the production cut progress of northern silicon plants, the inventory reduction speed of downstream silicon wafers, and the situation of southwest factories locking long - term production capacity and resuming production in advance. The main contradiction of industrial silicon is the resumption progress of leading large factories. There is an inventory accumulation expectation during the wet season, but the downward adjustment space is limited due to the inventory reduction expectation during the dry season, and it will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range from September to October [65][66][70]. - The main trading logic of polysilicon is centered around policy progress. The release of the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026" on September 4 triggered market attention. Without actual policy implementation, there may be adjustment pressure at the beginning of next week. The price increase space is limited after the sales restriction in September. In September, it enters the last stage of the previous merger plan, and the industry meeting in Baotou on September 12 may bring relevant industry disturbances. After the six - ministry meeting on August 19 strengthened the supply - side policy expectation, the 14th Five - Year Plan in October will focus on demand - side guidance, and the polysilicon price is expected to remain strong in the medium term [71][72]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon Overview and Strategy Recommendation - Weekly Overview (9.1 - 9.5): In the industrial silicon market, the prices of 553 and 421 remained unchanged week - on - week, while the price of 99 silicon in Xinjiang decreased by 100 yuan. Some raw material prices, such as silicon coal, increased. The production of industrial silicon decreased slightly, with a national decrease of 0.3%. In the polysilicon market, the price of N - type polysilicon dense material increased by 5.3%, while the price of 99 silicon continued to decline. The production of polysilicon decreased by 2.6%, and the inventory decreased by 0.9%. The production of silicon wafers increased by 3.5%, and the inventory decreased by 6.6%. The production of organic silicon monomers increased by 1.0%, and the demand increased by 3.9%. The consumption of aluminum alloy decreased by 8.0%, and the export increased by 8.3% [7][9]. 2. Balance Sheet - Industrial Silicon Supply - Neutral Assumption: The production of industrial silicon shows a downward trend in 2025 compared with 2024. The production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan has different changes. The production in Xinjiang decreased in some months, while the production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly in some months. The production forecast is adjusted according to the production resumption and reduction plans of large factories [12]. - Supply Hypothesis: The production forecast of large factories in Xinjiang from April to October is adjusted downwards, and the production forecast of other regions in Xinjiang is adjusted upwards. There is an expectation of production resumption in Xinjiang in June. The monthly production in Xinjiang and Yunnan in July is adjusted upwards, and the production expectation of large factories in Xinjiang in July is adjusted downwards. The resumption volume in September is adjusted downwards, and the production in the southwest in October is adjusted upwards [16]. 3. Balance Sheet - Industrial Silicon Demand - Neutral Assumption: The demand for industrial silicon mainly comes from DMC, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy. The production of DMC shows a certain growth trend, while the production of polysilicon shows a downward trend in 2025 compared with 2024. The consumption of aluminum alloy also shows some fluctuations. The total demand and supply - demand gap are calculated based on the supply and demand data [20]. - Demand Hypothesis: The production forecast of DMC is adjusted upwards. The annual production growth rate expectation of exports is adjusted downwards, and the production expectation of polysilicon from June to October is adjusted upwards. The production expectation of polysilicon from July to September is adjusted upwards, and the production expectation of polysilicon is adjusted downwards due to possible changes in the resumption plan of a base in Xinjiang [20]. 4. Balance Sheet - Polysilicon Supply - Neutral Assumption: The supply of polysilicon shows a downward trend in 2025 compared with 2024. The production capacity utilization rate also shows some fluctuations. The production forecast is adjusted according to the production resumption and reduction plans of large factories [33]. - Assumption: There is an expectation of production resumption of a large rod - shaped silicon factory in the southwest in May. The production expectation of polysilicon from June to October is adjusted upwards, and the production expectation of polysilicon from July to September is adjusted upwards. The production expectation of polysilicon is adjusted downwards due to possible changes in the resumption plan of a base in Xinjiang [33]. 5. Balance Sheet - Polysilicon Demand - Neutral Assumption: The demand for polysilicon mainly comes from silicon wafers. The production of silicon wafers shows a certain growth trend, and the total demand and supply - demand gap are calculated based on the supply and demand data [40]. - Polysilicon Demand Hypothesis: The silicon wafer quota in the second quarter is higher than expected, which supports the inventory reduction expectation of polysilicon. The production growth rate of silicon wafers is assumed to be slightly more optimistic than the installation growth rate [41]. 6. Cost Curve - The cost curves of polysilicon mixed - material under different scenarios (considering and not considering waste - heat power generation) are provided, showing the cost levels of different enterprises in the wet season [62][63].
工业硅多晶硅周报-20250908
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-08 09:26