大类资产周报：资产配置与金融工程A股缩量分化，贵金属内外共振上行-20250908

Market Overview - Macro growth factors continue to rise, while inflationary pressures remain high, with the US manufacturing PMI reaching 53.3, a 27-month high[4] - The South China Commodity Index increased by 0.72%, with rebar and copper both rising by 1.16% due to demand expectations from equipment updates[4] - Precious metals saw significant gains, with Shanghai gold up 4.00% and COMEX gold up 3.52%, driven by interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Fixed Income: Favor high-grade credit bonds and adjust duration flexibly, focusing on bank and insurance sector movements[5] - Overseas Equities: With US economic data exceeding expectations, consider opportunities in interest-sensitive sectors as rate cut expectations rise[5] - Gold: Increase allocation to gold and silver as a hedge against inflation and policy uncertainty, with Shanghai gold expected to break previous highs[5] - A-shares: Liquidity remains a key driver, with a structural bull market continuing, but valuation and earnings alignment is declining[5] Risk Factors - Policy adjustment risks, market volatility risks, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks are highlighted as potential concerns[6]