纸浆2025年09月第1周报-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental situation of the pulp market is weak, with both positive and negative factors coexisting. The international macro - environment presents a mix of surprises and shocks, and the domestic macro - situation shows an "outer - weak, inner - strong" pattern. There are also various trends in supply, demand, and trade in different aspects of the pulp and paper industry [3][4][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market Changes - Imported broadleaf pulp: The ex - works price of imported broadleaf pulp is firm, and the average price has increased due to price adjustments in some regions. - Imported natural color pulp: There is significant pressure on the spot market for imported natural color pulp, and the average weekly price has slightly declined. - Imported chemimechanical pulp: The supply - demand situation in the spot market for imported chemimechanical pulp has changed little, and the average spot price remains stable. - Downstream paper industry: The continuous cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement efforts of the downstream paper industry have further pressured the upward momentum of the pulp market [4] 3.2 Macro - Surprises and Shocks Coexist - As of August 2025, the Citigroup Global Economic Surprise Index dropped to +12.42 points, strengthening trendily for four consecutive months, which is positive for SP unilateral [13]. - As of July 2025, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index rose to 377.1 points, with the year - on - year increase of the 12 - month average at +46.3%, and the growth rate has narrowed [13] 3.3 Macro Trade - Outer Weak, Inner Strong - As of June 2025, China's total import and export volume increased to $545.3 billion, with the cumulative value of the past six months increasing by +3.2% year - on - year, and the growth rate has expanded, which is positive for SP unilateral [16]. - As of July 2025, Canada's trade surplus decreased to - C$5.86 billion, a year - on - year decrease of - C$5.27 billion, with marginal reduction, which is negative for SP unilateral [21] 3.4 Stock and Bond Markets - As of 2025, the Small and Medium 100 Index rose to 7579 points in four months, a year - on - year increase of +34.2%; the CSI 1000 Index rose to 7266 points in four months, a year - on - year increase of +107.5%; the Galaxy CSI Index closed at 70.9%, a year - on - year increase of +37.5%, with the growth rate expanding for 14 consecutive months, which is positive for SP unilateral. - The ChinaBond New Composite Index declined for two consecutive months, closing at 106.16 points, weakening marginally for four consecutive months, which is positive for SP unilateral [26] 3.5 Broadleaf Supply - Demand: Support for Broadleaf Strength - As of July 2025, the import of broadleaf wood chips increased for three consecutive months, reaching 1341000 tons, equivalent to 671000 tons of wood pulp; the import of broadleaf pulp decreased to 1352000 tons. - The import of coniferous wood chips decreased to 57000 tons, equivalent to 29000 tons of wood pulp; the import of coniferous pulp decreased for four consecutive months, reaching 727000 tons. - The ratio of short - fiber to long - fiber imports was 2.68 times, with the 12 - month average increasing by +2.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate has narrowed for six consecutive months, with marginal reduction, which is positive for the broad - coniferous spread [35] 3.6 Paper - Making Consumption: Discrepancy between Output and Electricity Consumption - As of July 2025, the output of domestic paper - making enterprises' machine - made paper and cardboard decreased to 13.94 million tons, with marginal reduction for four consecutive months, which is negative for SP unilateral. - The electricity consumption of the domestic paper - making industry increased to 944 million kWh for three consecutive months, with marginal increase for three consecutive months, which is positive for SP unilateral. - The average monthly profit - loss difference of the domestic paper - making industry increased to +3.094 billion yuan, with marginal reduction, which is negative for SP unilateral [41][42] 3.7 Coniferous Supply: Increment Negative for Valuation - As of July 2025, the inventory of European softwood pulp increased to 236000 tons; the consumption of European softwood pulp increased to 260000 tons; the inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.907 times, with the 12 - month average increasing by +9.0% year - on - year, and inventory accumulation for eight consecutive months, which is negative for SP unilateral. - The domestic import of coniferous wood chips decreased to 57000 tons, equivalent to 29000 tons of wood pulp; the domestic import of coniferous pulp decreased for four consecutive months, reaching 727000 tons, with a total of 755000 tons of long - fiber pulp, and the cumulative value of the past three months increasing by +15.2% year - on - year, and marginal increment for eight consecutive months, which is negative for SP unilateral [53] 3.8 International Pulp and Paper Trade: Slight Reduction - As of July 2025, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil decreased for three consecutive months, reaching $579 million, a decrease of - 2.6%, with marginal reduction, which is negative for SP unilateral. - In July, the domestic pulp import value decreased to $1.765 billion; in June, the US pulp import value decreased to $303 million; the combined value (with a one - month lag) was $2.068 billion, a year - on - year increase of +5.0%, with the growth rate narrowing for two consecutive months, with marginal reduction, which is negative for SP unilateral [55][60] 3.9 Impact of Port Inventory on SP Unilateral - As of September 5, 2025, the total inventory of the above ports was 2.256 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of - 0.2%, with marginal inventory accumulation, which is negative for SP unilateral [67]