猪价涨后回落，关注下旬双节需求

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [5][65]. Core Insights - The report highlights that pig prices have shown a trend of rising and then falling, with a focus on demand during the upcoming festivals in late September. The average price of live pigs in China was 13.79 yuan/kg as of September 5, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.17 yuan/kg [2][10]. - The report notes a significant increase in slaughterhouse activity, with an average daily slaughter volume of 149,100 pigs, up 5.30% week-on-week. However, frozen product inventory levels have also risen slightly, indicating slower sales [12][30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures aimed at controlling production capacity in the pig farming industry, which may lead to a long-term increase in pig prices and benefit low-cost, high-quality pig farming enterprises [30][46]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Pig prices initially rose due to increased demand from schools and restaurants but later fell as larger enterprises increased their slaughtering plans. The average weight of pigs at slaughter has slightly increased to 128.23 kg, with group farms averaging 123.61 kg and smallholders at 143.75 kg [10][16]. - The report suggests that the supply pressure is expected to increase in the short term, with a projected rise in slaughter numbers for September. The focus remains on the demand boost from the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [30][32]. Poultry Sector - The white chicken market is experiencing a slight price decline due to high inventory levels. The average price for white feather broilers was 7.17 yuan/kg as of September 5, down 0.16 yuan/kg week-on-week [32][37]. - The egg market has seen a slight rebound in prices, with an average price of 6.53 yuan/kg during the first week of September, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.02 yuan/kg [3][37]. Agricultural Products - The soybean meal market is experiencing fluctuations, with futures prices for soybean meal at 3,067 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price for soybean meal is 3,084 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton week-on-week [4][46]. - The report indicates that the agricultural sector is facing challenges due to trade policies and weather conditions affecting soybean imports, particularly from South America [4][46]. Seed Industry - A national meeting on strict variety management was held, emphasizing the need for innovation in breeding and the importance of maintaining food security amid trade tensions. The report suggests that policies supporting agricultural technology development may accelerate the industry’s growth [46].