多元资产月报（2025年9月）：海外联储降息将至，国内积极风偏延续-20250908

Macro Economic Background - The domestic economy shows steady progress with new growth drivers strengthening, as evidenced by a 5.7% year-on-year increase in industrial production in July, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 9.3% [12][14] - Fixed asset investment growth has slowed to 1.6% year-on-year for the first seven months, while manufacturing investment has outpaced overall investment growth at 6.2% [12][14] - Exports have remained resilient, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 6.1% in the first seven months, and July's growth rate rebounding to 7.2%, particularly in high-value products like integrated circuits and automobiles [12][14] A-Share Market - In August, the A-share market continued to show enthusiasm, driven by a growth narrative, with active trading and a focus on growth stocks [4][18] - The outlook for September suggests a solid foundation for the market, with attention on potential style shifts as the market transitions from valuation recovery to performance verification [4][18] Fixed Income Market - In August, the bond market experienced a bearish trend, with funding rates declining and a steepening yield curve observed [4][19] - The outlook for September indicates that if equity gains slow, the bond market may benefit from favorable conditions [4][19] Currency Exchange - The US dollar index is expected to remain weak and volatile, influenced by market expectations of monetary policy divergence between the US and Europe [4][19] - The Chinese yuan is anticipated to maintain an appreciation trend in the short term, supported by favorable factors such as increased corporate foreign exchange settlement motivation [4][19] Offshore Markets - The US stock market is expected to experience fluctuations due to multiple disturbances, including employment data and tariff policies, while the Hong Kong stock market has potential for rebound supported by improved liquidity and domestic policy [4][19] - The outlook for US Treasury bonds suggests that the market has already priced in the likelihood of interest rate cuts, leading to expected volatility in short-term yields [4][19] Commodities - Gold prices are projected to remain strong due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while oil prices are expected to trend downward as the travel season comes to an end [4][19]