宏观内强外弱，有色震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: With a macro environment of strong domestic and weak overseas conditions, and the industry entering the peak season, the capital attention has increased. The copper price repeatedly reached highs and then declined last week, and the open interest fluctuated in the same direction as the price. The approaching September interest rate cut in the US is favorable for the copper price from a financial perspective, but the disappointing US non - farm payrolls data on Friday increased the market's expectation of an economic downturn. The market has already priced in more of the interest rate cut and less of the economic downturn, so the non - farm data is overall negative for the copper price. Domestically, the industry's peak season provides support for the futures price. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate with a slight upward trend, and attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [2][47]. - Aluminum: In a macro environment of strong domestic and weak overseas conditions, the industry presents a weak reality, and the capital attention has decreased. The Shanghai aluminum price reached a high and then declined last week, followed by a volatile trend, and the open interest continued to decline. Overseas, the expectation of an economic downturn has increased, while in China, the anti - involution atmosphere has resurfaced. In the industry, the mid - stream electrolytic aluminum has been continuously accumulating inventory, the downstream aluminum rods have been destocking, and the downstream is in a wait - and - see mood. As the domestic industry enters the peak season, the industry's support for the futures price is gradually strengthening. Attention can be paid to domestic consumption and inventory changes. Currently, it is still in a weak reality stage, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate [3][47]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - On the night of September 6th, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the US non - farm employment in August only increased by 22,000, far less than the market expectation of 75,000. The June non - farm employment data was revised down from an increase of 27,000 to a decrease of 13,000, the first monthly employment contraction since 2020. The unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. The market's expectation of a US economic downturn has increased, and the expectation of an interest rate cut has also risen, leading to a weak performance of the US dollar index [7]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity - Price Trend - The copper futures price repeatedly reached highs and then declined last week, and the open interest fluctuated in the same direction as the price [2][47]. 2.2 Copper Ore Processing Fees Remain Low - Since August, domestic processing fees have slightly rebounded at a low level. The rising price of by - product sulfuric acid has also led to a slight rebound in smelters' processing profits [22]. 2.3 Slower Destocking of Electrolytic Copper - The destocking of electrolytic copper has slowed down [24]. 2.4 Downstream Initial Stage - No specific analysis content provided, only a chart of copper downstream monthly capacity utilization is shown [26]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity - Price Trend - The Shanghai aluminum price reached a high and then declined last week, followed by a volatile trend, and the open interest continued to decline [3][47]. 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - No specific analysis content provided, only charts of bauxite port inventory and alumina price are shown [34]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Accumulation - The mid - stream electrolytic aluminum has been continuously accumulating inventory [3][47]. 3.4 Downstream Initial Stage - The downstream aluminum rods have been destocking, and the downstream is in a wait - and - see mood. Charts of aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees (average price), and 6063 aluminum rod inventory are shown [3][47].