美非农不及预期，降息预期升温

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price rose significantly. The weaker-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data for August on the night of September 6 pushed the gold price to maintain a strong trend, with London gold approaching the $3,600 mark. The upward trend of the gold price since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22 was largely driven by the dovish stance of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the meeting. Although there were still differences regarding two or three interest rate cuts this year, the release of the August non-farm data further boosted the expectation of interest rate cuts. - On the night of September 6, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US non-farm payrolls in August increased by only 22,000, far lower than the market expectation of 75,000. The non-farm payrolls data for June was revised down sharply from an increase of 27,000 to a decrease of 13,000, the first monthly employment contraction since 2020. The unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. - Since late August, the upward trend of the US stock market has slowed down, which has somewhat increased the market's risk aversion demand and the risk premium of precious metals. Technically, both New York gold and London gold have broken through the upper edge of the trading range since the second quarter, showing strong upward momentum. Attention can be paid to the pressure level of the April high of Shanghai gold in China. [4][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - Weekly Trend: No detailed description provided in the text, only related charts are mentioned. [8] - Indicator Changes: From August 29 to September 5, COMEX gold increased from $3,516.10 to $3,639.80, a rise of 3.52%; COMEX silver rose from $40.75 to $41.51, an increase of 1.87%; SHFE gold futures increased from 785.12 to 815.60, a rise of 3.88%; SHFE silver futures went up from 9,386.00 to 9,812.00, an increase of 4.54%. The US dollar index decreased from 97.85 to 97.73, a decline of 0.12%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB rose from 7.12 to 7.13, an increase of 0.06%. The 10-year US Treasury real yield decreased from 1.82 to 1.73, a decline of 0.09; the S&P 500 rose from 6,460.26 to 6,481.50, an increase of 0.33%; the US crude oil futures decreased from $64.01 to $61.97, a decline of 3.19%. The COMEX gold-silver ratio increased from 86.28 to 87.68, an increase of 1.62%; the SHFE gold-silver ratio decreased from 83.65 to 83.12, a decline of 0.63%. The SPDR Gold ETF increased from 977.68 to 981.97, an increase of 4.29; the iShare Gold ETF rose from 456.34 to 459.94, an increase of 3.60. [9] 3.2 Weaker-than-Expected US Non-Farm Payrolls - Last week, the gold price maintained a strong upward trend, while the US dollar index and US Treasury yields showed weakness. The decline in US Treasury yields was obvious. On the one hand, the expectation of interest rate cuts led to a decline in short-term Treasury yields, which was transmitted to the long term. On the other hand, the expectation of a slowdown in the US economy led to a decline in long-term Treasury yields. - Last week, the US stock market rebounded after hitting a low, still maintaining a high-level volatile trend, and the market sentiment improved. [11][14] 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - According to the data on September 2, compared with the previous week, the long positions changed by 40,029 contracts, the short positions changed by 4,810 contracts, and the net long positions changed by 35,219 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than the gold ETF, but it has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness. - Since late August, the holdings of gold ETFs have increased significantly. Last week, gold continued to rise, silver rose and then fell, and the gold-silver ratio showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. - The non-farm payrolls data was weaker than expected, which increased the expectation of US interest rate cuts and the expectation of economic slowdown. The decline in the 10-year US Treasury yield was greater than that of the 2-year Treasury yield, and the 10-2 yield spread narrowed. [17][20][21] 3.4 Conclusion The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the significant increase in the gold price last week, the impact of the weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls data on the interest rate cut expectation, the rise in the market's risk aversion demand, and the strong upward momentum of gold prices from a technical perspective. [25]