有色日报：有色震荡运行，镍尾盘走强-20250908

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - Copper: Today, copper prices fluctuated with a continuous decline in open interest. Macroscopically, the non - farm payroll data in the US on Friday fell short of expectations, increasing concerns about economic downturn and negatively affecting copper prices. However, with the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, industrial support will strengthen. Given the strong domestic and weak overseas macro environment, copper prices tend to fluctuate. Continued attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - Aluminum: Today, aluminum prices had a narrow - range fluctuation with a slight decrease in open interest. Macroscopically, the US non - farm payroll data on Friday was disappointing, raising economic downturn concerns and being negative for aluminum prices. Domestically, the "anti - involution" sentiment resurfaced, which is positive for aluminum prices. At the industrial level, as China enters the "Golden September and Silver October" industrial peak season, industrial support is expected to continuously strengthen. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 20,800 mark [5]. - Nickel: Today, nickel prices had a relatively strong fluctuation, with a slight increase at the end of the session and a slight decrease in open interest. Macroscopically, concerns about overseas economic downturn increased, having a relatively small impact on nickel, while the rising expectation of interest rate cuts is positive for nickel prices. At the industrial level, the nickel inventories in LME and SHFE continued to rise, which is negative for nickel prices. It is expected that nickel prices will tend to fluctuate [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - Copper: In the SMM Shanghai copper spot market, there was a strong selling sentiment. Due to a large amount of imported goods arriving over the weekend and some supplementary domestic supplies, the inventory in Shanghai increased by 0.66 tons, and there were still imported goods continuously arriving [8]. - Aluminum: According to the SMM bauxite shipping data on September 5th, the weekly arrival volume of bauxite at domestic ports was 3.3958 million tons, a decrease of 1.4085 million tons compared with the previous week. The weekly departure volume of bauxite from major ports in Guinea was 2.2887 million tons, a decrease of 0.7957 million tons compared with the previous week, while that from major ports in Australia was 1.3036 million tons, an increase of 0.2816 million tons compared with the previous week. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea continues, and it is expected that the total import volume of bauxite in China in September will show a significant month - on - month decline. The shipping volume from Australia has rebounded, and the import volume of Australian bauxite in the past two months is expected to increase month - on - month [8]. - Nickel: Today, the price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 121,300 - 123,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 800 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,100 - 2,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Related Charts - Copper: The report includes charts such as copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][14][17] - Aluminum: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [22][28][30] - Nickel: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][36][38]