山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term safe - haven aspect: Although trade agreements are reached in batches, concerns about European and American debts and the independence of the Federal Reserve have resurfaced. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with weak employment and moderate inflation, leading to a rebound in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [2]. - The safe - haven attribute: The yield of the 30 - year US Treasury bond has risen to the highest level since mid - July, following the trends of European and British bond markets. Investors are worried that governments of major economies are losing control of fiscal deficits. Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Cook and Cook's lawsuit against Trump for overstepping the authority to remove him have raised concerns about the Fed's independence [2]. - The monetary attribute: US employment growth has nearly stagnated, and the unemployment rate has reached a nearly four - year high. A Fed interest - rate cut is a certainty. The market currently expects the probability of a Fed interest - rate cut in September to remain around 90%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within this year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The US dollar index and Treasury bond yields are oscillating weakly [2]. - The commodity attribute: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the depreciation of the RMB is beneficial to domestic prices. It is expected that precious metals will oscillate upwards in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and rise in a stepped manner in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have significantly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Market Performance: The precious metals oscillated upwards today. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.02%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 0.51% [2]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3]. - Data Summary: International prices of Comex gold and London gold, domestic prices of Shanghai gold and gold T + D all showed increases. There were also changes in basis, spreads, ratios, and positions such as Comex gold, Shanghai gold, and gold TD positions, as well as inventory and other data. For example, the Comex gold main contract closed at $3599.50 per ounce, up 2.37% from the previous day [3]. - Net Position Ranking: The top 10 net - long and net - short positions of futures companies' members in Shanghai gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are provided, including the net positions of each company and their changes [4]. Silver - Market - related Logic: The price of silver is related to the price of gold. In terms of capital, there has been significant position - increasing in the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory has slightly increased [6]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [7]. - Data Summary: International prices of Comex silver and London silver, domestic prices of Shanghai silver and silver T + D showed different trends. There were also changes in basis, spreads, positions such as Comex silver, Shanghai silver, and silver TD positions, as well as inventory and other data. For example, the Comex silver main contract closed at $41.73 per ounce, up 2.40% from the previous day [7]. - Net Position Ranking: The top 10 net - long and net - short positions of futures companies' members in Shanghai silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are provided, including the net positions of each company and their changes [8]. Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve - related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25. The Fed's total assets are $66542.34 billion, down $152.39 billion [9]. - Other Key Indicators: There are changes in various indicators such as the 10 - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, and US inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic survey indicators. For example, the CPI (year - on - year) is 2.70% [10][11]. - Central Bank Gold Reserves: The central bank gold reserves of China, the US, and the world are provided, as well as the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves in different regions [11][13]. - Risk - related Indicators: The geopolitical risk index has decreased, and the VIX index has increased. The CRB commodity index has increased, and the offshore RMB has slightly depreciated [13]. - Fed Interest - Rate Expectations: The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate levels at different meetings from 2025 to 2026 is provided through the CME FedWatch tool [14].