Report Title - Steel and Ore Weekly Report (2025-09-08): Weak Demand in Peak Season, Divergent Trends in Black Commodities [1] Report Author - Zhengxin Futures Industrial Research Center, Black Industry Group. Researchers: Xie Chen, Yang Hui [2] Report Main Views Steel - Price: Spot prices declined slightly, and the futures market fluctuated weakly [4] - Supply: Blast furnace production dropped significantly, and electric furnace production continued to decline [4] - Inventory: The accumulation rate of building material social inventory slowed down, while plate inventory accumulated at an accelerated pace [4] - Demand: Building material demand rebounded, while plate apparent demand declined significantly [4] - Profit: Blast furnace profits narrowed, and electric furnace losses widened [4] - Basis: The basis of the 01 contract widened slightly, and the 1-5 spread remained inverted [4] - Summary: US employment data cooled significantly, China's anti-involution policy caused ripples, and the rumored real estate inventory acquisition policy might provide some support. Overall, industry sentiment was strong. Last week, blast furnace operations decreased, hot metal production dropped significantly, and electric furnace operations declined synchronously. Affected by Tangshan's production restrictions, overall supply decreased. In terms of demand, funds available at construction sites improved, leading to a rebound in building material demand, while plate demand declined due to significant production cuts by rolling mills. Last week, the inventory of the five major steel products accumulated at an accelerated pace, mainly dragged down by plates. In general, the supply-demand structure of steel continued to weaken last week, with unobvious peak-season characteristics. However, considering the impact of production restrictions, attention should be paid to the demand recovery speed next week. For trading strategies, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single-sided steel trades and consider shorting the steel-ore ratio [4] Iron Ore - Price: Ore prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the futures market moved sideways [4] - Supply: Shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and arrivals increased month-on-month [4] - Demand: Blast furnace production declined, leading to a month-on-month decrease in demand [4] - Inventory: Port inventory increased slightly, while downstream total inventory decreased slightly [4] - Shipping: Shipping costs both declined [4] - Spread: The 1-5 spread increased slightly, and the discount of the 01 contract narrowed [4] - Summary: After the end of Tangshan's production restrictions, there is an expectation of blast furnace复产. Last week, shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and arrivals also rose, resulting in a relatively loose supply. In terms of demand, affected by Tangshan's production restrictions, hot metal production dropped significantly, leading to an obvious decline in iron ore demand. However, there is an expectation of a rapid recovery. In terms of inventory, the port throughput decreased, port inventory increased slightly, and steel mill inventory decreased slightly. Overall, the supply of iron ore increased month-on-month last week, while demand declined significantly, resulting in a looser supply-demand structure. In the short term, the market may still trade on the expectation of steel mill复产 and restocking. Compared with steel products, ore prices may maintain a current oscillating and strengthening trend. For trading strategies, aggressive investors can consider short-term long positions on pullbacks [4] Steel Monthly Market Tracking Price - Last week, rebar prices first declined and then rose, with a significant rebound on Friday due to strong policy expectations, and market sentiment improved. The 01 rebar contract fell 17 to 3143. Spot prices were slightly weak, with rebar in East China quoted at 3240 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 30 [10] Supply - Blast Furnace: According to Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate was 80.4%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.80 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 2.77 percentage points. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 85.79%, a week-on-week decrease of 4.23 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 2.19 percentage points. The daily average hot metal production was 228.84 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11.29 tons and a year-on-year increase of 6.23 tons [13] - Electric Furnace: As of September 5, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 55.74%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.8 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 23.04 percentage points. The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnaces nationwide continued to decline, mainly due to the relatively strong scrap steel prices, which significantly narrowed the profits of short-process steel mills, and some losses further expanded, leading some to choose to reduce production and conduct maintenance [20] - Building Materials and Plates: Last week, rebar production decreased slightly, with a cumulative decrease of 1.88 tons. Affected by the military parade, hot-rolled production in North China decreased significantly, with a week-on-week decrease of 10.5 tons in sample steel mills. Three steel mills in Northeast and North China had production line maintenance, which was basically scheduled to resume on the 4th, having a significant impact on short-term production [23] Demand - Building Materials: From August 27 to September 2, the national cement delivery volume was 2.5775 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.68% and a year-on-year decrease of 22.82%. The direct supply of infrastructure cement was 1.53 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.29% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.53%. At the terminal, the impact of typhoon weather in South China was still obvious, and the demand recovery speed of construction sites nationwide was slow, with a simultaneous decline in the trading volume of building materials by traders [26] - Plates: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from July. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from July. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from July. Although the month-on-month decline in new manufacturing orders and new export orders narrowed, they were still in the contraction period. Coupled with the decline in the demand for base materials due to North China's production restrictions, the overall domestic demand for plates remained weak [29] Profit - The steel mill profitability rate was 61.04%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.60 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 56.71 percentage points. In the short process, as of September 5, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 3332 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 2 yuan/ton. The average profit was -141 yuan/ton, and the off-peak electricity profit was -44 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 1 yuan/ton [33] Inventory - Building Materials: As of September 5, the rebar social inventory accumulated slightly, with a cumulative increase of 1.72 tons. In terms of social inventory, except for a week-on-week decrease of 0.12 tons in Northwest China, other regions showed inventory accumulation, with the largest accumulation in East and North China, with week-on-week increases of 5.47 tons and 5.75 tons respectively [37] - Plates: In terms of hot-rolled coil social inventory, except for a week-on-week decrease of 0.65 tons in Northeast China, other regions showed inventory accumulation, with the largest accumulation in North and Central China, with week-on-week increases of 3.03 tons and 2.05 tons respectively. In terms of factory inventory, the factory inventory increased slightly by 0.3 tons last week, mainly concentrated in the East China region [40] Basis - Last week, the rebar basis rose 27 to 117, and the hot-rolled coil basis rose 36 to 60. Currently, the basis of both rebar and hot-rolled coil is at a relatively low level. In terms of trading, considering that the peak-season demand for rebar has not fully recovered, attention should be paid to the trading opportunity of the rebar basis widening [44] Inter-period Spread - The 1-5 spread of rebar remained at -48, unchanged from last week, and the inversion continued. In terms of the 1-5 spread of hot-rolled coil, the inversion deepened by 4 to -10. In the short term, affected by the pressure of the 10th contract warehouse receipts on the spot market and the poor real demand, continuous inversion occurred, and the inversion situation was difficult to reverse [48] Inter-commodity Spread - The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar on the futures market continued to widen by 9 to 197. In terms of the spot spread, it rose 50 to 140. In terms of trading, attention should be paid to the trading opportunity when the 01 contract spread expands to over 200, choosing to expand the spread on pullbacks and being cautious about chasing long positions [51] Iron Ore Monthly Market Tracking Price - Last week, iron ore prices fluctuated within a narrow range and rose slightly. The 01 contract rose 2 to 789.5, and the spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rose 4 to 783 yuan/ton. Market sentiment improved slightly, and the overall market showed a rebound trend [57] Supply - Global Shipment: According to Mysteel's global iron ore shipment data, the current value was 35.568 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.41 million tons. The weekly average global shipment volume in August was 32.775 million tons, basically flat month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 1.04 million tons [60] - Arrival: The total arrival volume of 47 ports was 26.45 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.83 million tons. The weekly average arrival volume in August was 26.009 million tons, basically flat month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 0.35 million tons [66] Demand - Rigid Demand: Last week, the daily average hot metal production of 247 sample steel mills decreased. The daily average hot metal production of 247 sample steel mills was 228,840 tons per day, a week-on-week decrease of 11,290 tons per day, a decrease of 16,800 tons per day compared with the beginning of the year, and a year-on-year increase of 6,200 tons per day [69] - Speculative Demand: In terms of downstream procurement, the daily average spot trading volume of iron ore at major Chinese ports by traders was 873,000 tons per day, a week-on-week decrease of 143,000 tons, mainly affected by blast furnace maintenance and production cuts [73] Inventory - Port Inventory: The total iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 144.2572 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 380,000 tons, a decrease of 11.85 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 16.63 million tons lower than the same period last year [76] - Downstream Inventory: As of September 5, the total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills nationwide surveyed by Mysteel was 89.3987 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 673,200 tons. The daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 2.8067 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 154,300 tons. The inventory consumption ratio was 31.85 days, a week-on-week increase of 1.43 days [79] Shipping - Shipping prices both declined. The shipping price from Australia to Qingdao was 10 US dollars, a week-on-week decrease of 0.22 US dollars, and the shipping price from Brazil to Qingdao was 23.7 US dollars, a week-on-week decrease of 0.9 US dollars [83] Spread - The basis of the 01 contract decreased by 5 to 16.9. Currently, the basis level is relatively low. Attention should be paid to the trading opportunity of the basis widening, but it is expected to start in October. In terms of the spread, the 1-5 spread was 24.5, a week-on-week increase of 1.5, and the overall spread was flat [86]
钢矿周度报告2025-09-08：旺季需求偏弱，黑色走势分化-20250908
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-08 11:01