铜产业链周度数据报告：预期兑现却应涨未涨，电解铜定价短期或将向基本面回归-20250908

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Expected to Rise but Didn't, Short - term Electrolytic Copper Pricing May Return to Fundamentals - Copper Industry Chain Weekly Data Report [1] - Report Date: September 8, 2025 [1] Group 2: Report Summary Core Viewpoints - Copper price's interest - rate - cut trading may be over. Without new marginal changes, it may return to fundamentals, and the current price may be overvalued compared to the fundamentals of electrolytic copper. The support level can still underpin the copper price before the "recession narrative" begins. Attention should be paid to downstream buyers' acceptance of the current price and the Fed's stance in the September meeting [6] Weekly Summary - Macroeconomics: The non - farm payrolls data was in line with expectations. The dollar index remained strong after the data release due to pre - trading and concerns about European debt. Copper prices rose and then fell [4] - Copper Concentrate: Low growth at the mine end continued to suppress TC prices. As of September 8, the TC quote remained at - 41 dollars, unchanged from a week ago [4] - Electrolytic Copper: After the interest - rate - cut expectation was fulfilled, the price may return to fundamentals in the short term. The price failed to break through the long - term resistance level of 80,000 yuan. Without new marginal changes, the high price may suppress purchasing power, but the downside is limited before the recession narrative starts [4] - Downstream Demand: Inventory did not accumulate during the off - season. The upcoming peak season replenishment may strongly support the copper price [5] Group 3: Electrolytic Copper Market Price 1.1 Upstream Market Price - TC prices remained at a low level. The short - term rise in copper prices pushed up long - term demand expectations and further suppressed TC prices [4] 1.2 Spot and Futures Market Price - The expectation of interest - rate cuts pushed up the premium of warehouse receipts [15] 1.3 Overseas Position Data - The speculative atmosphere overseas increased significantly [21] Group 4: Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory 2.1 Upstream Supply - The growth rate of the supply side was limited [30] 2.2 Production and Inventory - The total production and operating rate of electrolytic copper showed certain trends. The cost and profit of production, as well as the weekly inventory, were also presented in the data [37][39][41] Group 5: Macroeconomic Data and Downstream Consumption 3.1 Dollar Index and US Treasury Yield - The dollar index was unexpectedly strong after the non - farm payrolls data [44] 3.2 US Economic Data - The non - farm payrolls data in August was unexpectedly low, which further boosted the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Multiple economic indicators such as employment, market confidence, retail sales, and inventory were presented [53][54][55] 3.3 Chinese Economic Data - In July, the new loans turned negative. The PMI was slightly above the boom - bust line. Multiple economic indicators such as M1, M2, social financing, and consumer spending were presented [61][67] 3.4 Chinese Copper Downstream Consumption Data - The power grid and new energy sectors provided support. Data on monthly demand, copper foil operating rate, terminal production growth rate, and fixed - asset investment growth rate were presented [74]