原油：地缘和OPEC+主导，油价冲高回落

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The second - round production increase of OPEC+ has been confirmed to start. EIA weekly data shows a signal of peak demand. The pressure of crude oil surplus in the fourth quarter will further increase. Although OPEC+ has not clearly defined the production increase route, once the oil price rises, it will increase OPEC+'s enthusiasm for production increase, which will always suppress the upper limit of the oil price. The mid - to - long - term idea of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. In the short term, take advantage of the rebound and building opportunities brought by the volatile geopolitical situation and interest - rate cut sentiment [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. International Crude Oil Analysis 1.1 Crude Oil Price Trends - From September 1 - 5, international oil prices first rose and then fell. By September 5, WTI and Brent settled at $63.92/barrel (-0.38%) and $67.48/barrel (-1.01%) respectively; INE SC settled at 486.22 yuan/barrel (+1.14%) [10]. - Weekly price trends show that from August 29 to September 5, WTI fell by $2.1 (-3.34%), Brent by $2.6 (-3.85%), Oman by $1.1 (-1.61%), and SC by 0.6 yuan/barrel (-0.12%) [13]. 1.2 Financial Aspects - The US August non - farm payroll data was far below expectations, which reignited the sentiment of interest - rate cuts. By September 5, the S&P 500 index continued to rebound, and the VIX volatility remained at a relatively low level [16]. 1.3 Crude Oil Volatility and US Dollar Index - The crude oil ETF volatility fell this week, and the US dollar index also declined. By September 5, the crude oil volatility ETF was at 33.33, and the US dollar index was at 97.7357. The crude oil volatility first rose and then fell, and the US dollar index continued to fluctuate downward due to the renewed market expectation of interest - rate cuts [20]. 1.4 Net Long Positions in Crude Oil Funds - As of September 2, the net long positions of WTI managed funds increased by 0.27 million contracts to 2.73 million contracts, a weekly increase of 11%, while speculative net long positions decreased by 0.97 million contracts to 7.51 million contracts, a weekly decrease of 11.5% [23]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 OPEC Production - OPEC's crude oil production increased month - on - month in July, rising by 26.2 barrels/day to 2754.3 barrels/day. Most countries have started to increase production, but the production of eight OPEC+ countries that agreed to increase production was still 8.4 barrels/day lower than planned in June [29]. - According to the IEA statistics, the production of nine OPEC member countries decreased by 32 barrels/day to 2288 barrels/day in July. The over - production of some countries decreased compared with the previous month [33]. - Saudi Arabia's production continued to rise, increasing by 17 barrels/day to 952.6 barrels/day in July, while Iran's production decreased by 1.2 barrels/day to 324.5 barrels/day [35]. 2.2 Russian Crude Oil Supply - According to OPEC statistics, Russia's crude oil production in July was 912 barrels/day, a month - on - month increase of 9.5 barrels/day; according to IEA statistics, it was 920 barrels/day, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 barrels/day. The production is gradually recovering but remains at a very low level [42]. 2.3 US Crude Oil Production - As of the week of September 5, the number of active oil rigs in the US was 414, an increase of 2 from the previous week and a decrease of 69 year - on - year. The rig count in the Permian Basin decreased significantly, which may limit the growth space of crude oil production [46]. - As of the week of August 29, US crude oil production decreased marginally to 1342.3 barrels/day, a decrease of 1.6 barrels/day from the previous week, with a year - on - year increase of 0.92% [49]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis 3.1 US Petroleum Product Demand - US petroleum product demand showed a signal of decline. The single - week demand for refined oil decreased, but the four - week average demand increased. As of August 29, the four - week average total demand for petroleum products was 2128.2 barrels/day, a week - on - week increase of 13.2 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 2.47% [53]. - The demand growth rate of refined oil slowed down. The four - week average demand for gasoline increased by 1.9 barrels/day to 905 barrels/day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.78%; the average demand for distillates increased by 1.2 barrels/day to 389.4 barrels/day, a year - on - year increase of 4.23%; the average consumption of kerosene decreased by 0.1 barrels/day to 179 barrels/day, a year - on - year increase of 4.37% [59]. - This week, the gasoline crack spread in the US declined, while the heating oil crack spread rebounded. By September 5, the gasoline crack spread was $20.63/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $34.18/barrel [62]. 3.2 European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - By September 5, the ICE diesel crack spread was $27.71/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $30.55/barrel. The crack spreads have recovered recently as the distillate demand has entered the seasonal upward channel [66]. 3.3 Chinese Oil and Refinery Situation - China's crude oil demand is gradually entering the peak season. In July, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 3.998 million tons year - on - year to 63.06 million tons (+6.77%); the import volume increased by 4.864 million tons year - on - year to 47.204 million tons (+11.49%) [70]. 3.4 Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth - Three major international institutions have different views on this year's demand growth rate. OPEC maintains last month's forecast, IEA continues to lower the demand forecast, and EIA raises the forecast for global oil demand growth. In July, EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted this year's global crude oil demand growth rates to be 89 barrels/day (↑), 68 barrels/day (↓), and 130 barrels/day (-) respectively [74]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis 4.1 US Crude Oil Inventory - US commercial crude oil inventories rebounded. As of August 29, EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 241,500 barrels to 420.71 million barrels, a year - on - year increase of 0.57%; SPR inventories increased by 509,000 barrels to 404.71 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 1.59 million barrels to 24.222 million barrels [75]. - The net import volume of crude oil rebounded, but the refinery operating rate declined. As of the week of August 29, the US net import volume of crude oil increased by 43.4 barrels/day to 285.8 barrels/day. The refinery processing volume decreased by 1.1 barrels/day to 1686.9 barrels/day, and the refinery operating rate decreased by 0.3% to 94.3% [79]. - The WTI monthly spread maintained a back structure, but the spread indicators continued to weaken. By September 5, the WTI M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.41/barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $0.93/barrel [82]. 4.2 Brent Monthly Spread - The Brent monthly spread also maintained a back structure. By September 5, the Brent M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.39/barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $0.93/barrel. The monthly spread continued to shrink on a weekly basis [84]. 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference 5.1 Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to EIA's August forecast, this year's global oil supply is 105.36 million barrels per day, and the demand is 103.72 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 1.64 million barrels, which is an increase compared with last month. Although EIA raised the demand forecast, due to OPEC+'s early termination of the 2.2 million barrels/day voluntary production - cut plan, the supply pressure this year is expected to be greater [87]. 5.2 Term Structure - This week, the US fundamental data shows that the single - week peak - season demand may have reached its peak, and the term structure continued to flatten compared with last week. Brent can support a stronger positive - carry structure due to the strong diesel demand and good crack profits in the early stage. However, as the peak - season demand gradually weakens and OPEC accelerates production increase in the near term, the term structure may change [90].