碳酸锂产业链周度数据报告：碳酸锂减产去库预期基本兑现，9月或延续矿端预期定价-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of lithium carbonate production cut and inventory reduction has basically been fulfilled, and the pricing in September may continue to be based on the expectations of the mining end. The price of the main lithium carbonate LC2511 contract first declined and then rose last week. The price is less sensitive to the fundamentals, and the short - term possibility of market change has increased this week [3][4]. - The seasonal peak season for cathode materials and lithium batteries is coming, which may support the lithium price in the short term [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Report Summary Fundamental Overview - Lithium ore: Expectations are fluctuating, with rumors of Jiaxiaowo's possible复产. As the key date of September 30 approaches, the expectation fluctuations may increase [3]. - Lithium salt: The expectation of复产 is weakening, and the "anti - involution" theme has resurfaced. After the marginal change of Jiaxiaowo's shutdown was digested, there were many negative news, and then the "anti - involution" theme led to a price rebound [3]. - Cathode materials and lithium batteries: The seasonal peak season is coming, which may support the lithium price in the short term [3]. Market Summary - The price of the main lithium carbonate LC2511 contract first declined and then rose last week. The expectations of mica mine production cut and lithium salt inventory reduction in August have basically been fulfilled, and the price is less sensitive to fundamentals. Near the 70,000 - yuan mark, the long - short game in the news has intensified. The market may change in the short term this week, and attention should be paid to news about lithium mines, Jiangxi salt factories, and "anti - involution" [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate Balance Sheet - The expectation of continuous inventory reduction in August has been fulfilled. The inventory change in August 2025 was - 2,090 tons, and the sample inventory decreased by 3,669 tons compared with the previous month [6][8]. 3.2.2 Lithium Hydroxide Balance Sheet - The inventory change in August 2025 was - 6,061 tons, and the cumulative balance was 20,440 tons [11]. 3.3 Upstream Ore Supply, Demand and Price 3.3.1 Lithium Spodumene Import - The import volume and average price of lithium concentrate have fluctuated. For example, in July 2025, the total import volume was 576,138 tons, and the average import price was 612 US dollars per ton [13][15]. 3.3.2 Chinese Lithium Ore - Lithium Mica Production Declined as Expected - In August 2025, the production of lithium mica was 8,980 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 44.22%. The production of lithium spodumene was 6,670 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.62% [20]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Supply, Demand and Price 3.4.1 Lithium Salt Spot and Futures Prices - The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have changed. For example, on September 5, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan per ton. The futures price correction has not clearly ended [26]. 3.4.2 Production Cost and Profit - The production costs and profits of lithium carbonate produced from lithium spodumene, low - grade mica, and high - grade mica have differences. For example, on August 29, 2025, the production cost of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 68,748 yuan per ton, with a profit of 8,752 yuan per ton [37]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate Production - In August 2025, the total production of lithium carbonate was 85,240 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 39% and a month - on - month increase of 5% [46]. 3.4.4 Operating Rate - The operating rates of mica and salt lake ends decreased significantly in July [47]. 3.4.5 Monthly Lithium Carbonate Import Volume - In July 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate was 13,845 tons, including 3,950 tons from Argentina and 8,584 tons from Chile [57]. 3.4.6 Lithium Carbonate Inventory - The sustainability of inventory reduction is weak [58]. 3.5 Lithium Salt Downstream Production and Demand 3.5.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - In August 2025, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 316,400 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 50.00% and a month - on - month increase of 8.84%. The operating rate was 62.00% [68]. 3.5.2 Ternary Materials Production and Operating Rate - In July 2025, the production of ternary materials was 68,640 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 16.70% and a month - on - month increase of 5.80% [73]. 3.5.3 Ternary Materials Import and Export Volume - The import and export volumes of ternary materials have changed over time [74]. 3.5.4 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In July 2025, the production of pure - electric vehicles was 807,000, and the production of plug - in hybrid vehicles was 436,000. The inventory warning index of automobile dealers was 57.2 [80].