多空博弈，煤焦震荡运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For coke, the eighth round of price increase at the end of August was blocked, and on September 1st, some steel mills initiated the first - round price cut, intensifying the industry chain game. The fundamentals of coke have not improved significantly. The second - fermentation of the "anti - involution" policy has warmed up the market atmosphere, and the strong cost - side expectations support the upward rebound of coke futures. However, the sustainability of the upward trend depends on the introduction of specific policies [4][32]. - For coking coal, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines this week was 693,000 tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons compared to the previous week. The daily output of coke was 1.1223 million tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons, and the daily output of molten iron was 2.2884 million tons, a decrease of 112,900 tons. The supply - demand data met the market's bearish expectations. The risk of the second - fermentation of the "anti - involution" policy is being released, and strong expectations have driven the coking coal futures to strengthen again. The coal industry is not among the nine "anti - involution" industries in the rumor, and the subsequent price trend of coking coal depends on whether the coal industry association and enterprises will introduce new policies or self - regulatory measures [4][32]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - In August, China imported 4.2737 million tons of coal and lignite, an increase of 712,800 tons compared to the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 20.0%. From January to August, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 29.9937 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.2% [6]. - On September 8th, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1,420 yuan/ton, including cash and tax [7]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Standard First - Class FOB) | 1,570 | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 7.10% | - 7.10% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Standard First - Class Ex - Warehouse) | 1,420 | - 4.05% | - 4.05% | - 12.35% | - 12.35% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,180 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 16.01% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian Coal) | 1,530 | - 3.16% | - 3.16% | 2.68% | - 9.47% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi Coal) | 1,550 | - 4.91% | - 4.91% | 1.31% | - 10.40% | [8] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,620.0 | 0.22 | 1,643.5 | 1,590.0 | 28,213 | - 6,616 | 47,802 | 776 | | Coking Coal | | 1,143.5 | 1.42 | 1,166.0 | 1,121.5 | 1,421,584 | - 310,972 | 717,820 | - 3,721 | [12] Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to coke and coking coal inventories (such as 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, ports), as well as charts on domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and bar procurement, wash - coal plant production, and coking plant operation [13][14][15][17][18][21][23][25][27][30][31]. Market Outlook The analysis and outlook for coke and coking coal are the same as the core viewpoints, emphasizing the industry chain game, policy impact, and supply - demand situation [32].