海外政策周聚焦：美国撤销三星等在华芯片厂授权，出口管制真实影响如何？

Export Control Impact - On August 29, the U.S. Department of Commerce removed Intel Semiconductor (Dalian), Samsung China Semiconductor, and SK Hynix Semiconductor (China) from the "Verified End User" (VEU) list, leading to case-by-case reviews for export licenses[1] - The termination of VEU status means these companies must apply for licenses to purchase U.S. chip manufacturing equipment for their factories in China, which may take three to six months to obtain[19] - The U.S. plans to approve export license applications for existing operations but will not approve any applications for capacity expansion or technology upgrades[19] Market Demand Shifts - Export controls are expected to change the demand structure for semiconductor manufacturing equipment, reducing the technical complexity of Chinese demand and shifting more demand outside of China[20] - Despite export controls, China's large-scale expansion of chip production capacity will continue, with a focus on traditional chip production and self-sufficiency[20] - Chinese companies may shift their purchasing from advanced tools to traditional tools and seek unregulated "node-agnostic" or "backward-compatible" equipment to support advanced node R&D[20] Scenarios and Risks - Base Case: VEU policy is implemented without further escalation, leading Korean wafer fabs to focus on traditional chips, benefiting domestic memory chip suppliers like Changxin Storage and Yangtze Memory[21] - Optimistic Case: Samsung and SK Hynix reach agreements with the U.S. similar to AMD and Nvidia, sharing 15% of sales from specific processors, which could be a bargaining chip in U.S.-Korea tariff negotiations[21] - Pessimistic Case: Escalation of tech competition leads to broader export controls affecting U.S. semiconductor equipment suppliers, potentially benefiting Chinese wafer fab equipment manufacturers[21] Geopolitical Risks - There is a heightened risk of geopolitical tensions exceeding expectations, which could further impact the semiconductor industry and related markets[31]