聚酯瓶片供应或再收紧，SAF价格再创年内新高

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has shown better performance than the market, with the industry index down 1.4% compared to a 1.2% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index [6][17] - Polyester bottle chip supply may tighten again, and SAF prices have reached a new high for the year, indicating potential recovery in industry profits [29][30] - The report suggests that the industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by policy support and supply-side reforms [14][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical industry index has increased by 22.2% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.5 percentage points but lagging behind the ChiNext Index by 15.9 percentage points [6][17] Key News and Company Announcements - Major polyester bottle chip manufacturers are maintaining a 20% production cut in September, with the possibility of increasing this to 30% if necessary [29] - SAF prices have surged, with a year-to-date increase of 42.39%, indicating strong demand and potential for price recovery in related sectors [30][31] Product Price Changes - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with ethane rising by 12.5% and methyl maltol by 8% [7] - Conversely, PVDF saw a decline of 16.3%, indicating volatility in the chemical market [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on core assets that have entered a long-term value zone, such as Baofeng Energy and Wanhua Chemical, as they are expected to benefit from a recovery in profitability [14][15] - It also suggests monitoring companies in sectors with supply constraints, such as vitamins and refrigerants, which may see price increases and improved performance [15][16]