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新型储能行业高歌猛进,钠电池行业前景看好
First Capital Securities·2025-09-08 11:27

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a favorable industry outlook with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [21]. Core Viewpoints - The sodium-ion battery industry is experiencing high demand, with global shipments reaching 3.7 GWh in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 259.0%. The total expected shipments for 2025 are projected to exceed 23.1 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 542.7% [4][5]. - The explosive growth of new energy storage is a significant driver for the sustained high demand for sodium-ion batteries. China's new energy storage capacity is expected to grow from 2.45 GW in 2021 to 43.79 GW in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 161.46% [11]. - The penetration rate of sodium-ion batteries is anticipated to rise sharply, from 0.4% in 2024 to 1.4% in 2025, and is expected to reach 8.5% by 2030 [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Sodium-Ion Battery Industry Demand - The sodium-ion battery industry is maintaining high demand, with a compound annual growth rate of 195.2% from 2021 to 2024. The first half of 2025 saw a significant increase in shipments, indicating robust market growth [5][18]. 2. New Energy Storage Growth - New energy storage has seen explosive growth, with global capacity increasing from 10.20 GW in 2021 to 74.10 GW in 2024, a compound annual growth rate of 93.67%. This growth is crucial for the sodium-ion battery market [11]. 3. Company Expansion Plans - Several companies in the sodium-ion battery sector have announced expansion and investment plans, including Huayang Co. and Weike Technology, which are increasing production capacity and investing in new projects [17][18]. 4. Price Competitiveness - The price advantage of sodium-ion batteries is expected to improve, with projections indicating that costs could drop to around 0.3 CNY/Wh in the next 1-2 years, potentially matching or undercutting lithium iron phosphate batteries [18].