Group 1: Report Core View - The supply - demand game between PX and PTA continues, and attention should be paid to the support of peak - season expectations [1] - The terminal demand has significantly recovered, and with the "Golden September and Silver October" peak - season expectations, the operating rates of downstream weaving and polyester have room for further increase, which will rigidly support the demand for PTA and then be transmitted to the PX segment [2] - The raw material cost has collapsed, and the inventory of polyester products is differentiated. The industrial chain is still under short - term pressure. Attention should be paid to the elastic opportunities brought by the low inventory of POY and the sustainability of traditional peak - season demand [4] Group 2: Daily Market Summary PTA&PX - On September 5th, the PX main contract closed at 6,714.0 yuan/ton, up 0.51% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 7.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,672.0 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 52.0 yuan/ton [2] - On the cost side, on September 5th, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.88 US dollars/barrel. On the demand side, on September 5th, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 840.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average trading volume was 630.8 million meters [2] - On the supply side, the recent operating rate of PX plants is at a high level, and the expectation of new domestic PX production capacity is increasing, so the supply pressure is gradually accumulating, which may suppress the price. The PTA plant load has increased and the restarted production capacity has increased, but some plants may reduce their loads due to low processing fees. The short - term supply pressure may weaken marginally, but it will still be relatively loose in the medium term [2] - On the demand side, the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City has risen to 840 million meters (the 15 - day average has increased by 33% compared with the previous value), the terminal demand has significantly recovered. With the "Golden September and Silver October" peak - season expectations, the operating rates of downstream weaving and polyester have room for further increase, which will rigidly support the demand for PTA and then be transmitted to the PX segment [2] - In terms of inventory, the PTA factory inventory has slightly accumulated compared with the previous period, but the current inventory level is still within the controllable range, and the rigid pick - up of polyester is stable. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected that the inventory pressure will have limited impact on the price. However, the subsequent inventory accumulation risk under high supply elasticity needs to be vigilant [3] Polyester - On September 5th, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,334.0 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,435.0 yuan/ton, down 15.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 101.0 yuan/ton [4] - On the supply side, the futures prices of PX and PTA have continuously declined. PX has weakened from 6,994 yuan/ton on August 26th to 6,714 yuan/ton on September 5th, and PTA has also dropped from 4,870 yuan/ton to 4,672 yuan/ton, reflecting the supply - loosening pressure on the raw material side. On the demand side, the MA15 of the trading volume of the Light Textile City has steadily climbed from 514.93 million meters on August 26th to 630.8 million meters on September 5th, and the signal of marginal improvement in demand is clear [4] - In terms of inventory, the inventory days of polyester DTY and FDY are 29.7/26.4 days respectively, significantly higher than the five - year average of 28.4/22.2 days. The inventory of polyester short - fiber is 6.97 days, also exceeding the average of 4.96 days, indicating the inventory accumulation pressure of mid - and downstream products. However, the inventory of polyester POY is 17.4 days, lower than the average of 20.4 days, showing a prominent structural contradiction. Overall, the collapse of raw material costs and the differentiated inventory of polyester products mean that the industrial chain is still under short - term pressure. Attention should be paid to the elastic opportunities brought by the low inventory of POY and the sustainability of traditional peak - season demand [4] Group 3: Industrial Chain Price Monitoring PX - On September 5th, 2025, the main - contract price of PX futures was 6,714 yuan/ton, up 0.51% from the previous day; the main - contract trading volume was 184,301 lots, down 30.92%; the main - contract position was 149,368 lots, down 1.44%. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 828 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in South Korea was 806 US dollars/ton, up 0.25%. The PX basis was - 129 yuan/ton, down 577.78% [5] PTA - On September 5th, 2025, the main - contract price of PTA futures was 4,672 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day; the main - contract trading volume was 615,241 lots, down 36.83%; the main - contract position was 1,036,165 lots, up 4.02%. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The PTA basis was - 82 yuan/ton, down 127.78%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 5 - 9 spread was 176 yuan/ton, up 51.72%; the 9 - 1 spread was - 140 yuan/ton, down 75.00%. The PTA import profit was - 812.57 yuan/ton, down 3.95% [5] Short - fiber - On September 5th, 2025, the main - contract price of short - fiber futures was 6,334 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous day; the main - contract trading volume was 192,663 lots, down 6.10%; the main - contract position was 185,144 lots, up 8.47%. The mainstream spot price in the East China market was 6,435 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The PF basis was 101 yuan/ton, down 15.83%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 68 yuan/ton, up 29.17%; the 5 - 9 spread was 194 yuan/ton, down 11.01%; the 9 - 1 spread was - 126 yuan/ton, down 3.28% [5] Other products - On September 5th, 2025, the price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 65.67 US dollars/barrel, down 1.81%; the price of the US crude oil main contract was 61.97 US dollars/barrel, down 2.16%; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 592.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of ethylene glycol was 4,500 yuan/ton, up 1.12%; the price of polyester chips was 5,745 yuan/ton, down 2.13%; the price of polyester bottle chips was 5,820 yuan/ton, up 0.52%; the price of polyester POY was 6,860 yuan/ton, down 0.58%; the price of polyester DTY was 8,040 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the price of polyester FDY was 7,135 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [5] Processing spreads - On September 5th, 2025, the processing spread of naphtha was 100.04 US dollars/ton, up 18.67%; that of PX was 235.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; that of PTA was 113.87 yuan/ton, down 21.27%; that of polyester chips was - 36.95 yuan/ton, down 146.68%; that of polyester bottle chips was - 411.95 yuan/ton, up 8.63%; that of polyester short - fiber was 28.05 yuan/ton, down 76.46%; that of polyester POY was 178.05 yuan/ton, down 14.87%; that of polyester DTY was 8.05 yuan/ton, down 12.02%; that of polyester FDY was - 46.95 yuan/ton, down 14.93% [6] Light Textile City trading volume - On September 5th, 2025, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 840 million meters, up 9.8% from the previous day; the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 654 million meters; the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 188 million meters [6] Industrial chain load rates - On September 5th, 2025, the load rate of PTA factories was 75.86%, unchanged; that of polyester factories was 89.42%, unchanged; that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, unchanged [6] Inventory days - From August 28th to September 4th, 2025, the inventory days of polyester short - fiber increased from 6.86 days to 6.97 days, up 1.60%; that of polyester POY increased from 15.3 days to 17.4 days, up 13.73%; that of polyester FDY increased from 24 days to 26.4 days, up 10.00%; that of polyester DTY increased from 28.6 days to 29.7 days, up 3.85% [6] Group 4: Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic dynamics - On September 5th, 2025, nominee Milan did not recommend handing over the control of the Federal Reserve to the president; the US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Cook over a mortgage incident; the World Gold Council reported that gold ETFs attracted 5.5 billion US dollars in August, and although there was an outflow in Asia, it could not stop the buying in Europe and the US [7] - On September 4th, 2025, Bostic was worried about inflation and still thought it was appropriate to cut interest rates once this year; the Federal Reserve would hold a payment innovation conference on October 21st to discuss stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and tokenization; nominee Milan would maintain the independence of the FOMC if the nomination was confirmed; the Federal Reserve's Beige Book showed that economic activity was basically flat, and enterprises and households felt the impact of tariffs; Waller thought the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates at the next meeting and there might be multiple interest - rate cuts in the future, but the specific rhythm would depend on the data; the World Gold Council sought to launch digital gold to create a new model for precious - metal trading, settlement, and collateral; the Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the margin level of gold deferred - delivery contracts [7] Supply - demand dynamics - demand - On September 5th, 2025, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 840.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 9.8%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 654.0 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 188.0 million meters [9] Group 5: Appendix - Big Model Reasoning Process - On the supply side, PX may become tight due to plant overhauls, and PTA supply is stable but there is a possibility of increased production [35][36] - On the demand side, the high operating rate of polyester and the increased demand in the Light Textile City are beneficial to PTA [35][36] - On the inventory side, PTA may face pressure, but the increasing demand may relieve the inventory [35][36]
聚酯链日报：PX及PTA供需博弈延续，关注旺季预期支撑-20250908
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-08 11:26