烧碱周报：周度去库不畅，烧碱承压调整-20250908

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Macro aspect: The number of non - farm payrolls in the US in August increased by 22,000, significantly lower than market expectations, and the unemployment rate reached 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. Market expectations for three Fed rate cuts within the year have risen [4]. - Supply - demand aspect: There are still maintenance expectations in the East China region, and enterprise inventories are at a low level, so the liquid caustic soda price in this region is expected to rise steadily. In the Shandong market, the possibility of a short - term increase in low - concentration caustic soda is small, and the price of 50% caustic soda is expected to remain firm in the short term due to order support [4]. - Overall logic: Recently, some enterprises have faced difficulties in destocking, and the weekly inventory has increased month - on - month, putting pressure on caustic soda prices. However, the cost support below is strong, and there are still certain expectations for peak - season demand. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on the caustic soda 2601 contract at low prices. The upper reference pressure level is 2,800 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Market Review - Spot market: The price of caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda and 50% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong, the price of 98% flake caustic soda in the Northwest, and other products did not change compared with the previous period. The price of alumina in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.58%, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in China decreased by 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55% [9][18]. - Futures market: Relevant data on caustic soda futures prices, positions, and their comparison with other related products such as soda ash, alumina, and PVC are presented through charts, but no specific text analysis is provided [15]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: - Production and capacity utilization: In the week of 20250829 - 0904, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. The loads in the Northwest, North China, and Central China increased, while the load in East China decreased. It is expected that the caustic soda capacity utilization rate will be around 83.8% and the weekly output will be around 825,000 tons [22]. - Enterprise maintenance: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans, which will have an impact on production capacity [23]. - Downstream demand: - Alumina: The domestic alumina price continued to decline slightly, and the market trading atmosphere was weak. The short - term price is expected to remain stable and weak, with a price range of 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton [28]. - Viscose staple fiber: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry in the week of 20250829 - 20250904 was 87.10%, a month - on - month increase of 1.08% [28]. - Inventory: As of 20250904, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 387,800 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 2.17% and a year - on - year increase of 35.17%. The inventory ratios in different regions showed different trends [31]. - Liquid chlorine: As of September 4, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreased, with a weekly average price of - 326 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15%. As of September 5, 2025, the PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 1.11%, and it is expected to reach 80.95% this week [34]. - Chlor - alkali cost and profit: In the week of 20250829 - 20250904, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 325 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.52%. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda remained stable, the price of caustic soda increased, and the weekly average price of liquid chlorine decreased significantly, resulting in an overall decline in chlor - alkali profits [35].