股指周报：市场短暂修复，关注趋势机会-20250908

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Friday, the market stopped falling and rebounded. In the afternoon, long - position funds became active. The three major indices showed a pattern of a bullish candlestick covering a bearish one, but the Science and Technology Innovation Board failed to recover the previous day's losses. The new energy sectors led the counter - attack, and the computing power concepts like optical modules also rebounded. From the index trend, the bullish candlestick covering a bearish one indicates that the market's bullish momentum still exists, and this adjustment period may be shorter than expected. However, sector rotation may occur, and whether the previous leading sectors can lead again is worth tracking [2]. - The four major indices collectively reached new highs, but the CSI 300 fell 0.81% for the week, the SSE 50 fell 1.15%, the CSI 500 fell 1.85%, and the CSI 1000 fell 2.59%. The average daily trading volume of the four major indices decreased compared to the previous week [2]. - The cumulative balance of margin trading purchases decreased by 16.619 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the enthusiasm for margin trading continued to decline. The movement of large - scale funds can reflect their attitude towards stabilizing the market. If there is a net inflow in the future, it means the market trend is still intact. The continuous and significant decline of margin trading balance may be a signal that the adjustment is entering the right - hand side [2]. - Facing the callback, investors are advised not to be disturbed by short - term emotions. They should calmly consider which directions to choose after the decline. The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft proposal may be released at the end of October, and September is expected to be a "golden window" to capture industrial policy trends [2]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - Weekly Market Review: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.18% (-45.41 points), the SSE 50 fell 1.15% (-34.26 points), the CSI 300 fell 0.81% (-36.43 points), the STAR 50 fell 5.42% (-72.76 points), the CSI 500 fell 1.85% (-129.99 points), the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.83% (-105.59 points), the ChiNext Index rose 2.35% (68.06 points), and the CSI 1000 fell 2.59% (-193.01 points). The trading volume of most indices decreased compared to the previous week [8]. - Domestic Data (I): The valuation levels of the four major indices are presented, including PE and percentile data [9][10]. - Domestic Data (II): Volatility increased, and the basis strengthened. Data on the basis and the volatility of the four major stock index options are provided [12][14]. - Foreign Data: The European and American markets showed stable trends, and the volatility was at a low level. Data on the volatility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, FTSE 100, CAC 40, DAX, and Nikkei 225 are presented [17]. 02 Macro Analysis - Domestic Macro (I): Various domestic macro - economic data are presented, including the cumulative year - on - year profit of state - owned industrial enterprises, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods, the year - on - year growth rate of GDP at constant prices, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in manufacturing, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment in construction projects [23][24][25]. - Domestic Macro (III): The PMI index of the manufacturing industry and the price index stabilized. Data on CPI (including food, non - food, and overall) and PMI (including manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and service industry) are provided [34][35][39]. - Domestic High - Frequency Data (I): High - frequency domestic data such as rebar inventory, excavator sales volume, and crude steel output are presented [43][45][47]. - Domestic High - Frequency Data (II): Data on real - estate - related high - frequency indicators are provided, including the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of housing construction area, new housing starts, real - estate development funds, and the sales area of commercial housing, as well as the weekly land transaction area of first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities [49][50][51]. - Foreign Macro (1): Foreign macro - economic data are presented, including the initial value of new non - farm payrolls in the United States, inflation data in the eurozone and the United States, unemployment rate in the United States, and PMI data in the United States and the eurozone [57][58][60]. 03 Market Sentiment - Funding Aspect: The short - and long - term funding costs remained stable. Data on open - market operations (net money injection) and SHIBOR rates are provided [66][67]. - Sentiment Aspect: Domestic investors showed active buying interest. Data on the net buying amount of northbound funds, margin trading balance, public fund net value, share, and quantity, as well as the trading volume and turnover of the two markets are presented [70][71][73]. - Important Market Information This Week: - There are three market liquidity characteristics at home and abroad. ETF fund flows are significantly differentiated, the market may enter the last round of intensive subscription and redemption of active public funds, and overseas high - debt capital interest rates coexist with the central bank's passive interest - rate cut pressure, which reduces the pressure on Chinese manufacturing in global competition and increases the attractiveness of RMB assets [75]. - Next week, a series of important data such as Sino - US CPI will be released intensively. The US non - farm annual data may be significantly revised downward. The ECB will announce its interest - rate decision. The pricing of the iPhone 17 is highly concerned. The deadline for the submission of the written application for early elections in the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party is approaching, and the French government will hold a confidence vote on the budget issue [76].