资金跟踪系列之十：两融流入放缓，ETF流向非银、有色、化工等领域

Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed, with inflation expectations also decreasing [1][14]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has tightened, while the domestic interbank funding situation remains balanced and relatively loose [1][14]. Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with most industry trading heat remaining above the 80th percentile, except for the ChiNext index [2][26]. - The volatility of major indices, except for the ChiNext index, has also decreased, with most industry volatilities below the 80th percentile [2][32]. Group 3: Institutional Research - The electronic, pharmaceutical, communication, computer, and automotive sectors have shown high research activity, with an increase in research heat for media, electricity and utilities, food and beverage, and non-ferrous sectors [3][43]. Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026 have been adjusted downwards, while sectors such as finance, oil and petrochemicals, electronics, non-ferrous metals, and computers have seen upward adjustments [4][21]. - The net profit forecasts for the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices for 2025/2026 have been raised, while the forecasts for the CSI 500 and ChiNext index have been lowered [4][23]. Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, continuing a net selling trend, with a notable increase in the buy/sell ratio in the communication, electronics, and automotive sectors [5][32]. - Northbound trading has primarily net bought in the electronic, computer, and pharmaceutical sectors, while net selling occurred in military, communication, media, and retail sectors [5][33]. Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has dropped to a near three-week low, with significant net buying in the electric new energy, non-ferrous, and finance sectors, while net selling occurred in the computer, military, and electronics sectors [6][38]. - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors like building materials, automotive, and non-ferrous metals continues to rise [6][38]. Group 7: Fund Activity - Active equity funds have increased their positions, primarily in TMT, non-ferrous, and electric new energy sectors, while reducing positions in retail, finance, and military sectors [7][46]. - ETFs have seen overall net subscriptions, particularly in non-bank, non-ferrous, and chemical sectors, while net redemptions occurred in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and computers [7][53].