天然橡胶周报：商品市场情绪转多，橡胶突破横盘格局-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on natural rubber is bullish. The industry is expected to maintain a relatively strong performance in the short - term [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the commodity market has turned bullish, and rubber has broken through the sideways pattern. Factors such as reduced rainfall in production areas, strong cost support, a slight decline in mid - stream inventory, narrow fluctuations in downstream operating rates, and bullish sentiment in the commodity market contribute to the short - term strength of rubber [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bullish. In domestic production areas, rainfall in Yunnan has weakened, and glue output has improved, but raw material supply pressure persists, supporting high raw material purchase prices. In Hainan, the weather has improved, and the daily rubber collection volume is about 5,000 tons. In Thailand, typhoons and heavy rainfall have affected rubber tapping, leading to tight raw material supply and rising prices. In Vietnam, the weather has improved, and raw material supply is gradually recovering [4] - Demand: Neutral. This week, the capacity utilization rates of China's all - steel tire and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. It is expected that the capacity utilization rates will rebound next week, but the increase may be limited due to some enterprises' production control plans [4] - Inventory: Neutral. As of August 31, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons, a decline of 0.5%. The inventory of dark - colored rubber decreased by 0.09%, and that of light - colored rubber decreased by 1.1%. The RU warehouse receipt inventory on the SHFE decreased, while the 20 - rubber warehouse receipt inventory increased [4] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. The RU - mixed spread narrowed slightly, and the RU - NR spread widened. The continuous decrease in RU warehouse receipt inventory boosted the futures price, while the expected increase in overseas production areas suppressed the rise of the NR futures price [4] - Profit: Bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber was in a loss, the theoretical production loss of domestic concentrated latex in Hainan expanded, and the delivery profit of Yunnan whole - milk rubber improved slightly [4] - Valuation: Bearish. The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is still moderately high [4] - Commodity Market: Bullish. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, the US Treasury yield has declined, and the risk appetite in the financial market has increased. The "anti - involution" hype sentiment has heated up again, making the commodity market bullish [4] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, buy on dips for RU. For arbitrage, go long on BR and short on NR [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Futures Market: Driven by the "anti - involution" hype, rubber prices rose strongly. As of September 5, the RU main contract closed at 16,325 yuan/ton, up 465 yuan/ton (+2.93%) for the week, and the 20 - rubber main contract closed at 13,090 yuan/ton, up 395 yuan/ton (+3.11%) for the week [7] - Spot Market: Spot prices rebounded. The prices of various types of rubber such as Shanghai SCRWF, Zhejiang - based Vietnamese 3L, and Thai - mixed rubber all increased [5] - Position on the Futures Market: The total position of NR increased significantly, and the RU - NR spread widened slightly [24][32] 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production Area Weather: Rainfall in production areas has decreased, which is conducive to rubber tapping [40] - Production and Export in Main - producing Countries: In July, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC reached 5.443 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.54%. From January to July, China imported 3.6005 million tons of natural rubber, a year - on - year increase of 21.82% [74][87] - Mid - stream Inventory: As of August 31, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased slightly. The inventory in Qingdao also decreased [101] - Downstream Tire Demand: The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises fluctuated narrowly. This week, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel tire and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased, and it is expected to rebound next week with limited increase [116] - Automobile and Heavy - truck Market: In July, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded. In August, the sales volume of heavy - trucks increased significantly year - on - year [122] - Tire Export: From January to July, China exported 5.34 million tons of tires, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [132] - Cost and Profit: The production profit of Thai standard rubber was in a loss, and the production profit of Thai latex was stable [140]