KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-09-08 11:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for NIO-SW (09866.HK) is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The sales momentum for the second half of 2025 is expected to reverse, with a need to track the sustainability of sales and cost control progress. The revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been raised from 876/934 billion to 888/1180 billion, with a new forecast for 2027 at 1536 billion, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 35%/33%/30% [5][6] - The Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2025-2026 have been adjusted from -158/-145 billion to -157/-89 billion, with a new forecast for 2027 at -54 billion. The current market capitalization corresponds to 1.1/0.8/0.7 times price-to-sales (PS) for 2025-2027 [5][6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue (in million) for the years 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 55,618, 65,719, 88,776, 118,020, and 153,630 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.9%, 18.2%, 35.1%, 32.9%, and 30.2% [9] - Non-GAAP net profit (in million) for the same years are -18,475, -20,585, -15,670, -8,867, and -5,383, with year-on-year changes of -54.2%, -11.4%, 23.9%, -43.4%, and 0.0% [9] - Gross margin percentages are projected to be 5.5%, 9.9%, 10.7%, 12.0%, and 13.0% for the respective years [9] - The diluted EPS (in yuan) is forecasted to be -10.9, -10.0, -7.0, -3.9, and -2.3 for the years 2023A to 2027E [9]