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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's investment strategy for the bond market is "oscillating bearish, pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw" [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the stock - bond seesaw effect, long - term bond yields are rising too fast. The central bank may introduce open - market bond trading policies soon [2][26] - The overall economic sentiment in China continues to expand, but the economic downward pressure has increased, and counter - cyclical regulation needs to be continuously strengthened [16] - The main tone of liquidity in the second half of the year is loose, but the probability of ultra - loose monetary policy is low unless the economic downward pressure increases sharply [18] - The stock - bond seesaw remains a negative factor for the bond market, and the supply - demand contradiction in the long - term bond market may be more prominent [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1. Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - term bond market into a downward trend, but the logic has become less obvious under the background of loose liquidity, making market operations difficult [9] - The July Politburo meeting set the tone for an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, providing a certain guarantee for the steady growth of the economy in the second half of the year [9] 1.2. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - China's economic sentiment continued to expand in August. The official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, with month - on - month increases of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points [13][16][26] - Many small and medium - sized banks have recently announced cuts in RMB deposit interest rates, with a reduction of 10 to 20 basis points [2][13] - The market's expectation of restarting the central bank's bond trading operations has been gradually increasing recently [14] - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held its second meeting to discuss topics such as government bond issuance management and central bank bond trading operations [15] - In August, the central bank carried out 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 3000 billion yuan, and also carried out 3000 billion yuan of net investment in outright reverse repurchases, with a total net investment of medium - term liquidity of 6000 billion yuan [15] 1.3. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 1.3.1. Economic Fundamentals - China's economic sentiment continued to expand, but the economic downward pressure increased in July, and counter - cyclical regulation needs to be continuously strengthened [16] - China's GDP in the second quarter increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 1.1% quarter - on - quarter, both exceeding expectations [16] - In July, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%, with export growth of 8% and import growth of 4.8% [16] 1.3.2. Policy Aspect - At the end of July, the balance of broad - money M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; the balance of narrow - money M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The difference between M2 and M1 growth rates narrowed to 3.2% [18] - The stock of social financing reached 431.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9%, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point in the growth rate. The newly added social financing in the month was 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 389.3 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, mainly driven by government bond issuance [18] 1.3.3. Capital Aspect - Since July 25, DR007 has continued to decline, and the cost of funds has decreased [18] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage, maintain adequate liquidity, and the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year may open up more space for domestic monetary policy [18] 1.3.4. Supply - Demand Aspect - The National Development and Reform Commission will allocate the third batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in this July and formulate a monthly and weekly plan for the use of national subsidy funds [21] - The special long - term treasury bond funds this year support equipment renewal with 200 billion yuan. The first batch of about 173 billion yuan has been allocated to about 7,500 projects in 16 fields, and the second batch is in the process of project review and selection [21] - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated recently [21] 1.3.5. Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond cost - performance ratio has broken through the short - term shock range downward, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market, and the market risk appetite has increased [23] - The short - term bonds are more affected by the capital aspect, while the long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [23] 1.4. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The central bank may introduce open - market bond trading policies soon to address the issue of the rapid rise in long - term bond yields [2][26] - The continuous increase in China's economic sentiment has further boosted risk appetite, and the stock - bond seesaw remains a negative factor for the bond market, which requires the guiding role of the central bank's open - market bond trading policies [26]