9月降息板上钉钉，关注利率敏感型ETF

Labor Market - In August, the non-farm payroll increased by 22,000, which was below the expected 75,000 and the previous value of 73,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, matching expectations and reaching the highest level since 2021 [3][6]. - The non-farm payroll for July was revised up by 6,000 to 79,000, while June's figure was revised down to -13,000, with a total downward revision of 160,000 [5][6]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month is priced at 89%, while the chance of a 50 basis point cut is at 11% [3][6]. Financial System Liquidity - The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.10%, showing a slow decline, while the overnight borrowing rate (SOFR) is stable at 4.41%. The total reverse repurchase agreements by all Federal Reserve banks last week amounted to $368.7 billion, exceeding the pre-pandemic average of $306.2 billion [7][9]. - The U.S. financial conditions index is at -0.50, and the financial stress index is at -0.71, both indicating a negative range [10]. Market Sentiment - The U.S. trade policy uncertainty index's 7-day moving average slightly decreased to 1704 points, indicating a continued downward trend in uncertainty [12][13]. - According to the AAII sentiment indicator, 32.7% of retail investors are bearish on the stock market, while 33% are bullish, resulting in a nearly balanced sentiment [12]. Global Market Performance - The global equity market rose by 0.4% last week, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets (1.4% vs. 0.3%) [21]. - The U.S. dollar index weakened by 0.1%, while gold and Bitcoin increased by 3.5% and 3.1%, respectively [21]. U.S. Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.3%, the seven major stocks increased by 1.2%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 index rose by 0.4% [21]. - In terms of style, small-cap stocks outperformed, with small-cap value (Russell 2000 Value at 1.1%) outperforming small-cap growth (Russell 2000 Growth at 1.0%) [21]. Sector Performance - Among the 36 secondary sectors in the U.S. stock market, 20 sectors saw gains, with media entertainment, durable goods, and non-ferrous metals leading with increases of 6.5%, 5.3%, and 3.4%, respectively [22]. - The sectors that outperformed the S&P 500 index (0.3%) included 17 strong secondary sectors [22]. Valuation and Earnings - The dynamic PE of the S&P 500 increased from 22.80 to 22.81, a rise of 0.05%. The forward EPS slightly increased from $268.55 to $268.64, a rise of 0.04% [32][33]. Strategy - The labor market's weakening trend is evident, leading to expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in September. The potential for a more significant preventive rate cut of 50 basis points will depend on upcoming inflation data [3][32]. - It is recommended to focus on interest rate-sensitive ETFs, such as the S&P Biotechnology ETF (XBI) and the S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB), which may benefit from the anticipated rate cuts [3].