煤化工策略周报-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic urea supply is at a low level, and there are expectations for an increase in industrial downstream operations and autumn fertilizers in demand. However, the fluctuations on both the supply and demand sides are currently relatively limited. The market's focus next week lies in the final results of the Indian tender. If the procurement volume and China's supply volume exceed expectations, it will still provide a phased boost to the market, and the futures market will continue to operate strongly, with the fluctuation range increasing again. Otherwise, market pressure will remain [5]. - Recently, the fundamentals of soda ash have shown little fluctuation, and the supply - demand support is insufficient. The warming of macro - sentiment and the continued fermentation of the anti - involution theme will bring emotional support to the market. The soda ash futures price may bottom out in the short term, but it should be treated as a rebound for now. A trend - like upward movement still requires more positive factors to materialize [6]. - Overall, there has been no obvious change in the supply - demand situation of glass, but the market may later trade on external factors such as macro - economic recovery and anti - involution. The futures market shows obvious signs of a phased bottom [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Futures Market and Raw Materials in the Industrial Chain - Futures Prices: As of September 5, the weekly change rates of the main contracts of urea, soda ash, and glass were - 2.11%, + 0.31%, and + 1.36% respectively. The performance of related varieties this week was differentiated, with urea being the weakest and glass the strongest [12][14]. - Raw Material Prices: This week, coal prices showed minor fluctuations. For example, the Qinhuangdao Youhun动力煤 (5500) closing price decreased from 692 yuan/ton on August 29 to 682 yuan/ton on September 4. The prices of LNG in various regions in China also fluctuated. The prices of raw salt mostly remained stable, with a slight increase in some areas. The price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong increased by 3.59% week - on - week [17][21][24]. 3.2 Urea: Monitor Export Dynamics and Indian Tender Results - Prices: This week, the urea futures price weakened significantly, with a sharp decline on Wednesday. The closing price of the main 01 contract on Friday was 1713 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 2.11%. The spot price also showed a weakening trend. As of Friday, the market prices in Shandong and Henan were 1690 yuan/ton and 1700 yuan/ton respectively, down 30 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton from the previous Friday [5]. - Supply: Recently, there have been more urea maintenance and short - term shutdowns. The daily output of the industry still fluctuates around 180,000 tons. As of Friday, the daily output was 184,400 tons, a slight increase of 0.66% from the previous Friday. It is expected that the daily output will continue to fluctuate at a low level next week [5]. - Inventory: This week, the urea enterprise inventory increased by 0.85% to 1.095 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 3.48% to 620,900 tons. Although exports are ongoing and the port collection volume is rising, the enterprise inventory is still accumulating [5]. - Demand: The domestic rigid demand for urea is weak. It is currently the off - season for agricultural demand, and the downstream industry's operation is restricted by environmental protection. After the military parade, some downstream operations may recover, but due to the previous raw material reserves of some downstream enterprises, the subsequent procurement demand may not increase significantly. Therefore, exports are still the core factor affecting urea demand [5]. - Indian Tender: The results of the new round of Indian tenders are being announced. India received 5.66 million tons of supply bids this time, with the lowest price on the east coast at $462.45/ton, a decrease of $69.55/ton from the previous tender. Although the price has dropped, India's inventory is low, and the final procurement volume may exceed the original plan. The participation probability of Chinese supplies in this tender is high, and the market expects the actual supply volume to far exceed expectations [5]. - Exports: The window period for urea exports this year is about to end, and all export goods need to be declared before October 15. This means that there is still a possibility of further release of export demand in the next 1 - 2 months, and the fulfillment of export orders will also be further enhanced [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash: Limited Supply - Demand Support, External Factors Provide New Support - Prices: This week, the soda ash futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The closing price of the main 01 contract on Friday was 1302 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.31%. The spot price partially declined at the beginning of the week and remained stable in the second half of the week. The price of heavy soda delivered in the Shahe area on Friday was 1212 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous Friday [6]. - Supply: This week, the industry supply increased significantly. The operating rate of the soda ash industry was 86.22%, a week - on - week increase of 3.75 percentage points, and the output was 751,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.53%. It is expected that the supply level will continue to rise next week [6]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory of soda ash decreased by 2.43% week - on - week to 1.8221 million tons. However, due to a more than 40,000 - ton increase in social inventory this week, the overall supply in the middle and upper reaches is still slightly increasing [6]. - Demand: Recently, the demand for soda ash has been weakly stable. The daily melting volumes of float glass and photovoltaic glass are stable at 159,600 tons and 88,600 tons respectively. Next week, there will be new production lines for float glass, and there is an expectation of an increase in the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass, which is beneficial for the recovery of rigid demand for soda ash. Currently, downstream procurement is mainly based on rigid demand [6]. 3.4 Glass: Obvious Bottom Characteristics in the Futures Market, Monitor External Factors for Boost - Prices: This week, the glass futures price fluctuated widely, first falling and then rising. The closing price of the main 01 contract on Friday was 1189 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.36%. The spot price slightly recovered, with the average market price of domestic float glass on Friday at 1156 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous Friday [7]. - Supply: Recently, the glass supply level has remained stable, with the daily melting volume in production at 159,600 tons. However, some production lines that were ignited earlier are expected to start production next week, and the glass output may increase [7]. - Inventory: This week, the glass enterprise inventory increased by 0.77% week - on - week to 63.05 million weight cases. The slight accumulation of inventory with stable supply reflects the weak demand [7]. - Demand: Recently, the glass demand has been average. Logistics control in the north has led to weak production and sales in some areas. The weekly apparent consumption of glass this week was 1.0828 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.09%. There is an expectation of a recovery in spot transactions in the future, but attention should be paid to whether there will be concentrated procurement in the market after the macro - environment warms up [7].