宏观周报：美国8月新增就业陷入停滞，美联储降息周期开启-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle has started as the US employment growth in August was near - stagnant, with non - farm payrolls increasing only 22,000, far below expectations. A 25 - basis - point cut is fully priced in the market, and there's a possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut [3][50]. - In August, China's economic indicators such as the comprehensive PMI index showed a month - on - month recovery, indicating that the overall economic prosperity level continued to expand [3]. - In July, China's national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend, with continuous growth in production and demand, stable employment and prices, and new achievements in high - quality development [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Situation - Industrial Supply: In July, China's industrial added - value data showed different trends in various sectors. For example, the mining industry had a certain growth rate, while the manufacturing and other sectors also had their own performance characteristics [10]. - Real Estate Data: From January to July, China's real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year. Residential investment decreased by 10.9%. Newly - built commercial housing sales area and sales amount also declined [18]. - Fixed - Asset Investment: From January to July, China's national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 1.6%, lower than expected and with a month - on - month decline [18]. - Social Retail Consumption: In July, China's social consumer goods retail总额 was 380 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 3.7%. By consumption type, commodity retail sales and catering income had different growth rates [18]. - Business Climate Index: In August, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rebounded, indicating an expansion of the economic prosperity level [3]. - Import and Export Data: In July, China's goods trade import and export volume was 3.91 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 6.7%. Exports showed a good momentum, and imports also had a certain growth [6]. 3.2 Financial Situation - Social Financing Data: From January to July 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan. In July, the increase in social financing scale was 1.16 trillion yuan. The stock of social financing scale at the end of July was 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 9% [37]. - Credit Market: From January to July, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. In July, new RMB loans were - 500 million yuan, the first negative growth since July 2005 [37]. - Money Supply: At the end of July 2025, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.8%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.28 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 11.8% [37]. 3.3 Price Indicators - CPI: In July, China's consumer price index was flat year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month. Food prices decreased year - on - year, while core CPI continued to rise [41]. - PPI: In July, China's industrial producer price index decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The purchase price of industrial producers also decreased [41]. 3.4 Overseas Situation - Employment: In August, US employment growth was near - stagnant, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, a new high since 2021. Long - term unemployed people increased by 385,000 compared to last year [3][50]. - European Economy: No detailed and specific content on the European economy was provided other than some related data trends in the unemployment rate and retail sales index [56][58]. 3.5 Other Situations - Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: In September 2025, the RMB exchange rate showed a stable and rising pattern. The trend was driven by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, China's economic fundamentals, and the central bank's market management [60].