铅周报：沪铅或以震荡趋势运行-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to show a fluctuating trend, with limited price volatility and few arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [5][40] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2510 of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated between around 16,780 yuan/ton and 16,950 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the price of LME lead futures contracts fluctuated between 1,984 - 2,007 US dollars/ton [13] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - In August, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level. Among the five sub - indices, the production index and the supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the new orders index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below the critical point [16] 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of September 5, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 16,840 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 16,710 yuan/ton, 16,755 yuan/ton, and 16,725 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead remained at around - 125 yuan/ton [20] 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - In June 2025, the global lead mine output was 395.9 thousand tons, an increase of 15.7 thousand tons from the previous month, and was at a relatively low level compared with the past five years. As of August 29, 2025, the average processing fees in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 600 yuan/metal ton, 600 yuan/metal ton, and 300 yuan/metal ton respectively. The average processing fee in Kunming was 380 yuan/metal ton. As of July 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 62.9 million tons, a decrease of 3.1 million tons from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, and was at a relatively high level compared with the past five years [26] 3.5 Inventory Situation - As of September 5, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 66,834 tons, an increase of 2,162 tons from the previous week. As of September 4, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 251,200 tons, a decrease of 3,350 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 21.96% [34] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - The US economy's growth rate is below the average level and shows few signs of acceleration. Multiple US industries face cost - rising pressure due to tariff policies. The manufacturing PMI and new orders index show slight improvements. Global lead mine output has increased, lead processing fees remain at a low level, lead output has decreased month - on - month, Shanghai lead inventory has slightly increased and is at a moderate level in recent years, while LME lead inventory has continuously decreased and is at a high level in recent years [4][39]