9月信贷：收缩or冲量

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The preliminary judgment indicates a high probability of significant credit expansion in September, which is expected to reverse the downturn seen in July and August, but this is not sustainable and there are still many structural and timing issues [12][33] - The credit issuance in September is likely to be concentrated in the latter part of the month, as banks will aim to balance credit scale growth and deposit generation, which may lead to a noticeable negative growth in credit in the first half of October [26][41] - The new loan interest rates are rigidly maintained, which may impact credit demand, as the rates for new corporate loans and housing loans have remained around 3.2% and 3.1% respectively [30][29] - The anticipated policy-oriented financial tools are expected to be around 500 billion, but their stimulating effect on credit may be weaker than in 2022 due to a lack of quality project subjects [31][32] Summary by Sections Section 1: September Credit Expansion - The credit issuance in September is expected to be a rebound from the seasonal decline in July and August, with a notable increase in corporate short-term loans [22][21] - The banks are likely to have a certain expansion demand as September is a quarter-end month, which may lead to a significant increase in credit issuance [22][12] - The consumption and operational loans with interest subsidies may not significantly stimulate credit demand, as past management issues have led to irregularities in loan usage [27][30] Section 2: Cross-Quarter Funding Pressure - Overall, it is expected that there will be no major issues with cross-quarter funding, despite some volatility expected around mid-September [34][41] - The funding environment is anticipated to show a pattern of "loose at the beginning of the month, volatile in the middle, and stable across quarters" [41][40] - The banks' funding stability is a concern, and the reliance on central bank support is crucial for maintaining liquidity [40][39]