国际贸易数据点评：缓和期内出口降温，后续仍需保持警惕

Export Trends - In August, China's exports showed initial signs of cooling, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.4%, down 2.8 percentage points from July, marking the second-lowest since May of the previous year[2] - Direct exports to the US saw a significant decline of 11.2 percentage points, reaching -33.1%, the second-lowest monthly figure during the current tariff friction phase[3] - Exports to the EU, UK, and Japan increased slightly by 1.1%, 2.7%, and 4.3% respectively, indicating a minor recovery in these markets[3] Import Dynamics - China's imports also fell by 2.8% year-on-year to 1.3% in August, primarily due to fluctuating crude oil prices, which saw a year-on-year decline of 15.1%[4] - Soybean imports dropped significantly by 14.6%, contributing to a broader decline in bulk and energy commodities, which saw a combined year-on-year decrease of 4.1%[4] - The contribution of processing trade intermediate goods to imports decreased by 0.7 percentage points, reflecting ongoing challenges in this sector[4] Market Outlook - Despite the extension of the tariff easing period, the export situation is expected to remain cautious, with potential impacts from US tariffs on ASEAN countries and other regions[5] - The current resilience in China's export industries is largely attributed to mature collaborative supply chains, which may face challenges from new tariffs imposed by the US[5] - If significant monthly declines in exports occur, there may be a need for increased fiscal support for durable consumer goods to counteract the cooling external demand[5]