黄金、白银期货品种周报-20250908

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising, currently at the end of the trend, and it is also recommended to wait and see [32][33]. Summary by Section Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend. Last week, the gold price was supported by the strengthened expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, geopolitical and policy uncertainties, the continued trend of central bank gold purchases, and the weakening of the US dollar index. This week, the main influencing factors include the US August CPI data, the preview of the Fed's September FOMC meeting, the trend of the US dollar index, and geopolitical risks [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the main gold contract 2510 was expected to fluctuate mainly, with the upper resistance level at 794 - 803 and the lower support level at 766 - 775 [11]. - This week, the gold contract 2512 is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level, with the upper resistance level at 821 - 840 and the lower support level at 795 - 814 [12]. 3. Relevant Data Situation - Relevant data includes the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar - offshore RMB exchange rate, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][23]. Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising, currently at the end of the trend. Last week, the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut, geopolitical hedging demand, and the growth of photovoltaic industrial demand resonated, pushing the silver price to fluctuate strongly. However, the short - term increase in inventory made it difficult for the price to rise unilaterally, showing a high - level oscillation pattern. This week, attention should be paid to the US August CPI data, Fed policy expectations, inventory changes, and geopolitical risks [32]. - It is recommended to wait and see [33]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the silver contract 2510 was expected to operate strongly, with the lower support range at 8900 - 9000 and the upper pressure range at 9400 - 9500 [37]. - This week, the silver contract 2512 is expected to operate strongly, with the lower support range at 9200 - 9500 [38]. 3. Relevant Data Situation - Relevant data includes the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48].